Description: Using population data, mortality rates are projected for people who will attain age 80 in the future. Finally, the distribution of the maximum age at death that will be attained by a Canadian is investigated.

Description: This paper presents an analysis of mortality in a sample of 441adults aged 55 to 85 at baseline, who were observed for eight years. The study was initiated for the purpose of analyzing age-related changes in a variety of physical variables and their impact on functional independence. The modeling approach is discussed and the factors which were most significantly related to mortality.

Description: This paper reviews the geriatric literature to identify risk factors that could be used by insurers to identify existing or incipient frailty.

Description: Discussion of paper presented at Living to 100 and Beyond symposium. Discusses paper by Guo and Wang on the use of data mining to determine the key factors affecting mortality rates at older ages.

Description: This paper demonstrates the potential synergies from applying actuarial techniques to operational risk analysis. It also demonstrates practical techniques, grounded in actuarial science, to solve operational risk management problems such as risk cost allocation and risk mitigation cost-benefit analysis. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.

Description: This paper uses Interpretive Structural Modeling concepts and techniques to better understand a company's overall risk profile. By viewing all of the risks in a firm as an integrated system, one can apply a computer-assisted learning process to construct a structural graph and illustrate the risk interrelationships. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to build a bridge between the traditional methods of looking at financial risk and insurance risk. The paper starts by explaining the concepts behind VaR models of economic capital used in banking. Differences between actuarial and financial views of risk are reviewed and explained. The paper concludes with proposing, developing, and parameterizing a true VaR model of insurance loss reserve risk, which combines several lines of business. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.

Description: Logistic-type models for the force of mortality like those introduced by Perks or Kannisto provide better fit to mortality data of people aged over 85 than Makeham’s model where the force of mortality increases exponentially with age. However, the difficulty in estimating their parameters by the maximum likelihood method makes their use less popular among actuaries. For Kannisto’s model, this paper proposes a weighted least-squares estimator which can easily be calculated with any regression software. The estimator is shown to be consistent, asymptotically unbiased and normally distributed. For Perks’ model, using a Taylor’s series expansion, the estimation problem is again reduced to a least-squares problem. The various estimators proposed in the paper are compared numerically using Canadian mortality data.

Description: This paper describes the process one goes through as a project manager in implementing an ERM dashboard. The purpose of the dashboard is to provide the management of the organization with a top-of-the-house view of all risk types in an integrated manner.

Description: Paper presents a conceptual approach that could improve the security of retiree benefits while reducing the variability of employer contributions and improving the long-term prospects of the plan as a whole.