Description: Essay discussing that the two factors that affect healthcare cost are costs and the fact that people lack coverage.

Description: This monograph was presented at the 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, held March 14-16 in Chicago. The author, noting that ‘strategy is a source of risk to the firm and thus ought to be included within enterprise risk management [ERM], enterprise risk analysis and measurement of the firm’s value, proposes a detailed framework in which strategic considerations can be incorporated into a quantitative model of the firm.

Description: For the purposes of risk management and stress testing, we characterize a spectrum of plausible extreme events, that we dub Grey Swans, by introducing a probabilistic method involving the concentration of measure phenomenon. As a result, stress tests can be triaged according to severity, probability and, now, information-based plausibility.

Description: The U.K. Pension Protection Fund (PPF) was established in April 2005 to protect the pensions of members of U.K. private sector defined benefit pension schemes that have insufficient assets and whose corporate sponsor fails. The Fund takes over the pension scheme assets and assumes responsibility for the payment of compensation to the former members of the scheme. The PPF is funded by a levy on the population of eligible schemes. To improve its ERM framework, the PPF has undertaken a reverse stress testing exercise. This analysis provided the organization with new insights into its risk profile, the scenarios leading to the PPF’s potential “failure,” and interactions between these scenarios. This paper discusses the principles and objectives of reverse stress testing in the special case of the PPF and then illustrates the application of complex system science techniques for the purpose of reverse stress testing.

Description: Response to Life Insurance 2020 Foresight – A Call for Essays. An essay stating the author’s vision for the future of the life insurance sector. Some smaller companies might focus on smaller niche markets rather than compete with larger companies in the broader markets.

Description: This paper investigates the optimal multi-period proportional reinsurance strategy that minimizes the ruin probability of an insurer. Some conditions under which it is optimal to have no reinsurance are derived. Based on these results, a new concept, capital threshold of proportional reinsurance, is introduced. In the case of two periods, a lower bound of the capital threshold of proportional reinsurance is provided. Some economic implications and properties of this new concept are also discussed.

Description: Abstract: The U.K. Pension Protection Fund (PPF) was established in April 2005 to protect the pensions of members of U.K. private sector defined benefit pension schemes that have insufficient assets and whose corporate sponsor fails. The Fund takes over the pension scheme assets and assumes responsibility for the payment of compensation to the former members of the scheme. The PPF is funded by a levy on the population of eligible schemes. To improve its ERM framework, the PPF has undertaken a reverse stress testing exercise. This analysis provided the organization with new insights into its risk profile, the scenarios leading to the PPF’s potential “failure,” and interactions between these scenarios. This paper discusses the principles and objectives of reverse stress testing in the special case of the PPF and then illustrates the application of complex system science techniques for the purpose of reverse stress testing.

Description: For the purposes of risk management and stress testing, we characterize a spectrum of plausible extreme events, that we dub Grey Swans, by introducing a probabilistic method involving the concentration of measure phenomenon. As a result, stress tests can be triaged according to severity, probability and, now, information-based plausibility.

Description: Review of stochastic, modeled geo-spatial risk metrics for insurance loss concentration and clustering and their counter point use for diversification

Description: This paper illustrates the application of stochastic control methods in managing the risk associated with an insurance business. We present the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman HJB equation and demonstrate its use in finding the optimal investment strategy based on some given criteria. Here we consider an insurance business with a fixed amount available for investment in a portfolio consisting of one non-risky asset and one risky asset. The object of the resulting control problem is to determine the investment strategy that minimizes infinite time ruin probability. The existence of a solution to the resulting HJB equation is shown. The relevant verification lemma is not presented in this paper and a numerical algorithm is given instead. Examples applied to exponential claims are also presented.