Description: This article introduces the reader to probabilistic methods used to model interactions in the financial market place. Three topics are specifically discussed, two concern modeling methods and the other concerns data analysis methods.

Description: This paper examines the models underlying three of the most influential FAHP articles.

Description: Book review of Extreme Risk Management: Revolutionary Approaches to Evaluating and Measuring Risk by author Christina Ray.

Description: Read the December 2016 issue of The Modeling Platform published by the Modeling Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: What is going on with the exchange rate, anyway? In 2002, $1 U.S. bought $C 1.60, and now in May 2005 you only get $C 1.25—that’s 20 percent less! Where’s it going next? One way to answer that question is with a time series model.

Description: This article lays conceptual foundations associated with projecting investment-related discretionary elements of various life insurance and annuity products. It outlines potential implementation approaches that may be appropriate when calculations are performed in a risk-neutral setting. The article concludes that crediting rates in risk-neutral models can be projected as in real-world models, except that the modeled provision for expected credit losses should be modified to equal real-world expected losses initially, but over the projection reflect management’s evolving expectation, moving ultimately to risk neutral expected losses.

Description: Feature article discussing how to do a model update.

Description: Principle-Based Reserving (PBR) is now upon us! Are you ready? Learn how Swiss Re's PBR Experience Sharing Solution can help you navigate this change.

Description: A disscussion of actuar R, an R package for actuarial science, and its facilities in the fields of loss distribution modeling, risk theory and credibility theory.

Description: Review of a report by Alan Mills introducing Complexity Science, a discipline which could help actuaries to model and manage complex systems, such as the health care system.