Description: This article describes the history and in some respects, the future of Big Data, and the tools we can use to handle it for PM and for machine learning. One such tool is Vowpal Wabbit, which sounds like something from a Bugs Bunny and Elmer Fudd cartoon (“Dwat that wabbit”), but it really is a popular approach to process a dataset of any size, as there is no need to load all the data into memory. Big data is forcing us to enhance many of our tools. So is the increased actuarial usage of stochastic-in-stochastic analyses (nested stochastic processes), which can result in unacceptably long program run times. Many of our popular computer languages are not inherently well suited for parallel computations.

Description: In recent years, vast amount of data from emerging experiences has helped insurers gain a deeper understanding of their policyholders and the factors driving their behaviors. However, due to limitations in traditional experience study methods, this understanding typically remains at the cohort level. This series of articles proposes a novel machine learning-based model that analyzes and predicts policyholder behaviors at the individual policy level. Policyholder embedding representations are learned using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) that takes into account the sequence of historical transactions associated with a policy. Additionally, a Neural Network with a multi-head architecture is trained to predict the policyholder's next action based on the policyholder embedding and other policy attributes. The resulting model offers several advantages over traditional experience studies and assumption-setting methods, including the ability to set policy-level assumptions that improve reserve accuracy, predict multiple behaviors simultaneously while capturing the interrelationships between them, and generate policyholder embedding representations that are useful for segmentation.

Description: It talks about the major areas of data science and how to learn data science with the actuarial background.

Description: We compare two predictive analytics methods - GLM and GBM in terms of predictiveness vs. interpretability.

Description: Feature article discussing the ways artificial intelligence will influence the actuarial field.

Description: Chairperson's column for the May 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism.

Description: LTC insurers can proactively identify policyholders more likely to go on claim in the near future, and methods to potentially delay or prevent claims, benefiting company and customer.

Description: Feature article describing how exponential technologies will affect the actuarial profession.

Description: The article focuses on the use of predictive analytics in the development of experience studies, pros and cons of using predictive analytics versus traditional techniques, and the implications for setting assumptions and improving profitability.

Description: How actuaries can become comfortable accessing, integrating and building complex data sets from big and broad sources of information to study the value of multidimensional drivers of change.