Description: Despite a considerable accumulation of empirical and theoretical evidence in the last two decades in favor of a slowdown in the rate of mortality increase with age, the veracity of mortality deceleration observed at very old ages among humans was recently called into question on the basis of: (1) inaccurate data, (2) invalid assumptions, and/or (3) inadequate mixture of birth cohorts with different mortality experiences. In this article, we use a highly reliable set of individual-level data on French-Canadians centenarians born between 1870 and 1896 and who died between 1970 and 2009 to compute new estimates of the age-trajectory of mortality at ages 100 and over. Our results suggest that the rate of mortality increase with age tends to slow down at very old ages, even when special care is taken to avoid issues (1) to (3) outlined above.

Description: Session 3b discussant comments

Description: This article looks at changes in life spans and retirement ages. The changes are completely out of sync. The history of retirement and retirement ages is reviewed. The article finds that while life spans were increasing for many years, retirement ages were dropping and then they had a modest increase recently. There are parallel issues in many countries and some international data is provided. The issue of working as part of retirement and phased retirement are introduced. The article concludes that more change is needed and that the failure to keep retirement ages updated is one of the reasons for the decline in defined benefit plans.

Description: Mortality in England and Wales has changed dramatically since 1841. Recent studies of the late modal age at death show that some low mortality countries are demonstrating a shifting mortality scenario following overall mortality compression, which dominated from 1900. England and Wales have appeared briefly in these works but are not the sole focus. This report will focus solely on males and females in England and Wales by smoothing, using a nonparametric method, mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database which are then used to construct period life tables from which modal age at death can be extracted for each year from 1841 to 2010. Mortality compression around and above the mode are also measured. Evidence is not strong enough to suggest England and Wales are demonstrating a shifting mortality scenario. In fact, females may be in an “intermediate situation” characteristic of moving into the shifting mortality scenario. This report recommends modal age at death should be used in combination with other measures of life duration in order to draw a comprehensive picture of mortality changes in low mortality countries. A further recommendation is for the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to use this technique to gain a greater understanding of the mortality and longevity they project for the future for England, Wales and the rest of the United Kingdom.

Description: Mortality in England and Wales has changed dramatically since 1841. Recent studies of the late modal age at death show that some low mortality countries are demonstrating a shifting mortality scenario following overall mortality compression, which dominated from 1900. England and Wales have appeared briefly in these works but are not the sole focus. This report will focus solely on males and females in England and Wales by smoothing, using a nonparametric method, mortality rates from the Human Mortality Database which are then used to construct period life tables from which modal age at death can be extracted for each year from 1841 to 2010. Mortality compression around and above the mode are also measured. Evidence is not strong enough to suggest England and Wales are demonstrating a shifting mortality scenario. In fact, females may be in an “intermediate situation” characteristic of moving into the shifting mortality scenario. This report recommends modal age at death should be used in combination with other measures of life duration in order to draw a comprehensive picture of mortality changes in low mortality countries. A further recommendation is for the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to use this technique to gain a greater understanding of the mortality and longevity they project for the future for England, Wales and the rest of the United Kingdom.

Description: Informal Discussion Transcript - Session 4B

Description: Abstract for Genetically Informed Longevity

Description: General Session 3 discussant comments

Description: People naturally observe risk in the form of the range of experienced gains and losses which is usually represented in statistical terms by standard deviation. In most cases, there are not enough observed values to reliably discern the true amount of losses that are possible in extreme situations. Statistical techniques that have long been applied to insurance company risks are being used to extrapolate from observed risk to extreme tails of the distribution of gains and losses. These processes are essentially an extrapolation from the “known” risk of volatility near the mean to “unknown” risk of extreme losses. “Fat tails” is a term often applied to risks where the likely losses in rare situations significantly exceeds the predictions of a Gaussian (“thin tailed”) distribution. This paper will look at the relationship between the observed risk and the extreme risk in statistical insurance r isk models and discuss how we might create a discussion among model users about the appropriateness of that relationship for specific types of risks.

Description: This paper provides an overview of those cognitive biases most often responsible for flawed risk assessments and provides practical techniques to mitigate them. Through a combination of mathematical rigor, case study, metaphor, and logic, the author highlights systematic errors in our thinking about risk and provides ways to avoid them.