Description: An introductory article describing how Bayesian statistics has evolved over the past 20 years and why it offers the actuarial discipline powerful tools to better understand and manage risk. Compared with traditional (frequentist) and black-box (machine learning) approaches, Bayesian analysis provides explainable models focused on distributions of estimates instad of simply point estimates.

Description: LTCi rate increases are large and becoming larger. As more and more policyholders cannot afford the cumulative impact, they need some relief - like access to the large contract reserve they have funded for the benefits they can no longer afford.

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: The article describes principles for optimal sub-tasking of a project goal. Two experiments each one comparing different approaches are presented. A summary of principles for optimal goal setting presents seven key points: i)levels of outcome goals should be recognizable and lack ambiguity; ii) each subtask should be atomic, i.e. not be capable of being broken up into further subtasks, iii) the subtasks should be uniform, lacking ambiguity, so that any new trainee could master it without the need for further guidance; iv) each subtask should be attainable in a reasonable amount of time; v) mentor feedback should be provided during the initial stages of learning or training; vi) upon mastery of each subtask trainees should be encouraged to maximize their overall score; vii) after mastery of individual subtasks, while attempting to maximize scores, trainees should be provided with a mixture of easy, intermediate, and difficult tasks.

Description: This article studies the syllabus as a dynamic, interactive teaching tool that informs and is informed by both solutions of complex course problems and student difficulties with these problems.

Description: Strategic Risk Management was given lower priority in a recent survey of ERM Objectives. This article tells how the author believes that recent events have caused many to shift to a more short term focus and in the future there will be a shift back to a priority for the longer term view that stands behind Strategic Risk Management when the environment settles down and things again seem to be more predictable.

Description: As actuaries in health care, we spend most of our time focused on reviewing claims, enrollment and clinical data. That information is captured while patients are in health care facilities. Yet most people spend only a small fraction of their time in these facilities. This article explores what types of data are available to actuaries the provide a more holistic view of the member so that a members physical and emotional needs, the social determinants of health can be taken into consideration along with their clinical needs. Two uses cases are presented so actuaries can see how these types of analyses can be leveraged to improve clinical, operational, and financial performance of risk bearing health entities. Understanding the customer (member) not just the patient enables actuaries to provide new insights and values to our stakeholders across a wide range of business and risk applications.

Description: The article focuses on the policyholder tax considerations specific to various types of contracts sold by life insurance companies. When evaluating merger and acquisition or reinsurance transactions, buyers need to be aware of the product tax compliance (PTC) requirements and evaluate any associated risks

Description: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) launched the GUIDE model, which represents a significant step forward in improving dementia care nationwide. Those with deep expertise in dementia recognize that family caregivers are the most powerful frontline defense to improve care for people living with dementia. It is thus not surprising that the GUIDE model specifically requires the inclusion of the family caregiver in the care team.

Description: Technology now supports customized non-level death benefits which help consumers optimize their coverage and cost. Creating individual policies and individually pricing them for a level premium quote is the start of personalizing and optimizing coverage and cost for consumers and pricing life insurance policies at the individual consumer level --- a revolution for actuaries.