Description: Traditional predictive tools are not built to deal with the variability the world currently faces. The COVID-19 pandemic amounts to a prolonged black swan event, for which one must look past conventional assessments to arrive at any level of confident predictions. Behavioral analysis factors for biases and heuristics designed specifically for uncertain evolutionary contexts, and which are the primary drivers of market participants’ decisions at present. Through understanding the most likely behaviors of individuals, it becomes possible to arrive at an aggregate understanding of market outcomes.

Description: As tariff policies are rapidly changing throughout 2025, the U.S. markets have been reacting in complex ways. In addressing the difference in short and long-term impacts of these policy changes, the importance of resilient and holistic risk management is highlighted in order for companies and investors to find opportunities and mitigate sudden losses.

Description: The author provides an overview, from a banking perspective, of Value at Risk VAR and its use as a risk management tool. This article originally appeared in the August 1997 issue of Financial Engineering News and is reprinted with permission.

Description: Review of the address given by Richard H. Thaler, Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics at the University of Chicago at the Investment Section at the Society of Actuaries meeting in New York on October 20.

Description: Extracting Inflation Expectations from Bond Yields by Frank A. Schmid from Risks and Rewards Newsletter, April 2000, Issue No. 34.

Description: This 2001 article warns against the risks of investing in an IPO, particularly in light of recent history.

Description: In this article the author notes that investment strategy development is fundamentally a communications exercise between the investment and actuarial functions. The article explores four questions with respect to investment strategy: 1 how to make money 2 how to avoid earnings fluctuations 3 how to avoid catastrophic loss and 4 how to choose a new investment idea.

Description: This 2001 article discusses the requirement to assess hedge effectiveness in the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s new statement on derivatives accounting, FAS 133, Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities, as critical for qualifying for “special” hedge accounting. The article provides analysis of different approaches and the potential difficulties encountered. This article is reprinted with permission from Derivatives Week.

Description: The Risk Management Task Force polled the Risks & Rewards readers and asked the following questions related to Monte Carlo models: 1 How many scenarios do you run? 2 How did you determine the number? and 3 What confidence interval does your result have? The results are summarized in this article.

Description: This articles offers an approach for accounting for executive stock options.