Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: "Living to 100 in the time of COVID-19: A Study of Late –Life Mortality Trajectories, Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago Swedish Mortality Does Not Decelerate in Recent Cohorts, or Does it? – Roland Rau, Ph. D., Professor, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Marcus Ebeling, Ph.D., Karin Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm Sweden; Kai Kaufhold, Aktuar DAV, Ad Res Advanced Reinsurance Services GmbH, Cologne, Germany; Annika Ziegler, Lukas Stake, Hochschule Koblenz & Ad Res, Germany"

Description: This three-part series provides an overview of the rapidly evolving and dynamic gene and cellular therapy landscape, from the clinical, historical, and risk transfer perspectives. It covers the actuarial considerations in pricing cell and gene insurance and reinsurance, the value assessment of the therapies, manufacturer pricing, and reinsurance cost.

Description: The 2023 Professionalism in Practice Course will study, discuss and explore the professionalism practice, code of conduct and application of the actuarial profession. Our speakers are seasoned presenters from mainland China. Experts will cover several issues encountered in daily actuarial working environments. Content will include business cases and interactive discussions, which aim to enrich the practical learning experience of attendees. Audience attendance will be limited in order to provide an interactive, collaborative learning experience. Early registration is highly recommended to secure a seat.

Description: This article on developing effective risk management strategies to protect your organization looked at the following topics: • Successfully identifying, assessing and managing risks for all stakeholders. • Identifying the appropriate strategy for your particular needs. • Ensuring the governance body understands risk. • Developing a risk management framework. • Incorporating risk management into your business planning.

Description: Analysis of Alzheimer’s Disease as a potential Critical Illness insurance benefit trigger.

Description: To discuss actuaries, as a rational group with systematic professional knowledge training in life insurance companies, should participate more in the discussion of enterprise management and make greater contributions to the industry at the stage when the industry is facing transformation and exploring new development ideas.

Description: LDTI’s introduction has forced many insurers to examine their existing operations and technologies. They must determine how to optimize compliance efforts while balancing data, analytics and system modernization considerations to achieve maximum value. This article will examine the four key facets—the data, technology, processes, and people—essential to any successful LDTI exercise. It will also touch on the various approaches for tackling LDTI and how a modernization mindset can help insurers realize much greater transformation for the business.

Description: This article describes how to externalize code of Moody's Axis platform to Visual Studio, so that all the actuarial calculation code run through corporate DevOps pipeline. This article gives specific examples of the author has used in his job to accomplish automated model governance.

Description: This article provides a brief overview of the current state of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) as they apply to actuarial science, including discussion around the integration of actuarial judgment with ML and AI. It concludes with an example of explainable ML through a python tool known as SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), which is able to explain the key drivers behind individual ML or AI predictions.