Description: This abstract describes a paper that investigates model uncertainty arising from different ways of treating the operational loss data collection threshold.

Description: This paper's objectives are to reduce the variation of life expectancy due to changes in the closing out method and give more homogeneous old age mortality surface for the Algerian population. The paper will also provide readers with a general methodology to extend mortality to old ages for the Algerian population starting from adult mortality data.

Description: This presentation compares continuous-time multi-factor affine cohort mortality models and presents estimation results for an affine multi-factor, multi-cohort mortality model.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that proposes a multi-population Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) mortality model, in which the joint mortality dynamics of all populations are formulated in a large vector autoregression model with a set of contemporaneous global mortality factors.

Description: This article describes the financial modelers’ manifesto. Focus is on how difficult it is to model financial instruments when there is a human element involved.

Description: This article discusses the reliance the banking industry placed on sophisticated mathematical models.

Description: This article discusses how complex models can provide a false sense of security, hiding the evidence that the entire range of indications may hinge on one or two key assumptions.

Description: The article discusses the investment models of The Mutual Pension Insurance Company Ilmarinen, one of the companies managing the statutory employment pension in Finland. The parts are: financial time series data management, time series analysis programs, investment simulation models and portfolio optimization models.

Description: Announcement of an upcoming 2003 Stochastic Modeling Symposium.

Description: This article, with some humor, describes a movement known as “econophysics” of physicists modeling economic systems, including capital markets, using techniques and concepts developed in studying the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of complex systems. A version of this article appeared in The Actuary UK in August 2004. Reprinted with permission.