Description: Financial regulators, rating agencies and many commentators have blamed weak Risk Culture for many of the large losses and financial company failures of the past decade. But their exposition regarding a strong Risk Culture only goes as far as describing a few of the risk management practices of an organization and falls far short of describing the beliefs and motivations that are at the heart of any culture. This discussion will present thinking about how the fundamental beliefs of Neo Classical Economics clash with the recommended risk practices and how the beliefs that underpin Enterprise Risk Management are fundamentally consistent with the recommended risk management practices but differ significantly from Neo Classical Economics beliefs.

Description: The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically worldwide over the last several decades, although stabilizing recently in the United States. Studies have found the effects on mortality to be inconsistent and controversial because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationship between obesity and mortality. This paper discusses this relationship and sheds light on the likely effects of this epidemic. Issues associated with the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for those individuals who are overweight and in some who are obese compared with the mortality of those in the normal weight category, are examined. Although certain recently reported studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity indicate that obesity is related to a reduced percent of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time that those currently obese have been exposed to their condition. Nevertheless, the amount of health care costs and rates of disability associated with being obese are significant, contributing to the increase in overall health care costs as they become more numerous and age. Although obesity is being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they will continue to prove challenging for individuals and society to manage and overcome.

Description: Session 3a discussant comments

Description: The dynamics of morbidity and mortality are central concerns in actuarial practice, having major implications for life, health, pension, and long-term care (LTC) insurers; for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security programs; for public policy planners; and for career and retirement planning among the general public. Two aspects of these dynamics—the compression of morbidity and the compression of mortality—are critically important to a proper understanding of the past, which, in turn, are essential for developing valid forecasts of the future. This paper reviews these dynamics, describes how they are related, shows how they apply to changes in mortality over the past century and to changes in morbidity over the past 30 years, and discusses their implications for future changes in the United States.

Description: Session 4b discussant comments

Description: Most actuarial explorations of increased longevity have, quite understandably, focused on its direct financial implications for things like health care costs, retirement systems, and social security or other public policy provisions. But future life extension has many other potential implications, both direct and indirect, for various socioeconomic factors, which in turn have the potential to affect the actuarial valuation of future risk contingencies. This paper examines a sampling of the socioeconomic issues emerging from the possibility of substantially increased longevity. Because of the complexity and interrelatedness of these issues, actuarial and risk modeling of this prospective environment could be a significant challenge.

Description: Session 5b discussant comments

Description: Session 5b discussion comments

Description: Abstract for Is Secondary Prevention of Alzheimer’s Disease Possible? A Discussion of Studies in the Alzheimer’s Disease Field

Description: As people advance into their 80s, mental health becomes ever more important. Two nonsmoking octogenarians of identical age and gender, with the same body mass index, type of diet and physical exercise routine, may have markedly different prospects of living to 100. Cognitive and social functioning, and positive well-being, are key to living longer. Many activities that influence longevity are very cognitively demanding. For example, chronic illnesses require self-regulation to limit damage; better knowledge and reasoning help manage disease. This paper evaluates the cognitive, psychological and social drivers of longevity by reviewing recent longitudinal studies, and analyzing the latest research on brain plasticity, positive psychology and elderly cohort survival, as well as new geriatric psychological theories on successful aging. A quantitative assessment is then made of the actuarial implications of these drivers for modeling the mortality of elderly annuitants, with new insights into what factors keep people progressing purposefully into advanced age, beyond avoiding disease.