Description: This paper discusses the increasing body of demographic, genetic and medical data being generated from studies of centenarians and the increasingly greater genetic contribution to the ability to survive to ages beyond 100.

Description: The underlying premise of this paper is that enterprise risk management (ERM), as it continues to evolve as both a process and a collection of risk management techniques, can benefit from several different (but ultimately somewhat related) “megatrends.” The core of this paper concentrates on the impact on ERM of one of those megatrends: the emergence of a behavioral economics perspective, which is beginning to have a large impact on our understanding of the economy and on certain economic and business processes. The evolution and context of behavioral economics are described, and potential implications for the practice of ERM are discussed. The paper culminates with a variety of specific suggestions for ERM practice in response to findings from behavioral economics research, specifically a number of human cognitive dissonances inconsistent with traditional economic theory.

Description: Abstract: This paper presents the output of in-house research on an emerging area of risk appetite management and our global implementation best practices. It intends to provide readers with detail implementation of risk appetite framework and assessment across an organization. It provides the conceptual risk appetite framework based model- developed by the author, implementation plan, and global best practices of a risk appetite assessment across an organization. It identifies the challenges and exceptions in the risk appetite assessment with an approach to manage it effectively, and helps organizations with cost-benefit analysis. It also includes an illustrative case study.

Description: The idea that events do not happen in isolation is not new; the notion of systems, that is, a set of entities interacting, is based on it. This is reflected in the comprehensive terminology that has been developed to express the effect that events have on each other: domino or downstream effects, unintended consequences, causality, catalyst or inhibitor, synergy, network, etc.

Description: Financial regulators, rating agencies and many commentators have blamed weak Risk Culture for many of the large losses and financial company failures of the past decade. But their exposition regarding a strong Risk Culture only goes as far as describing a few of the risk management practices of an organization and falls far short of describing the beliefs and motivations that are at the heart of any culture. This discussion will present thinking about how the fundamental beliefs of Neo Classical Economics clash with the recommended risk practices and how the beliefs that underpin Enterprise Risk Management are fundamentally consistent with the recommended risk management practices but differ significantly from Neo Classical Economics beliefs.

Description: The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically worldwide over the last several decades, although stabilizing recently in the United States. Studies have found the effects on mortality to be inconsistent and controversial because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationship between obesity and mortality. This paper discusses this relationship and sheds light on the likely effects of this epidemic. Issues associated with the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for those individuals who are overweight and in some who are obese compared with the mortality of those in the normal weight category, are examined. Although certain recently reported studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity indicate that obesity is related to a reduced percent of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time that those currently obese have been exposed to their condition. Nevertheless, the amount of health care costs and rates of disability associated with being obese are significant, contributing to the increase in overall health care costs as they become more numerous and age. Although obesity is being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they will continue to prove challenging for individuals and society to manage and overcome.

Description: Session 3a discussant comments

Description: The dynamics of morbidity and mortality are central concerns in actuarial practice, having major implications for life, health, pension, and long-term care (LTC) insurers; for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security programs; for public policy planners; and for career and retirement planning among the general public. Two aspects of these dynamics—the compression of morbidity and the compression of mortality—are critically important to a proper understanding of the past, which, in turn, are essential for developing valid forecasts of the future. This paper reviews these dynamics, describes how they are related, shows how they apply to changes in mortality over the past century and to changes in morbidity over the past 30 years, and discusses their implications for future changes in the United States.

Description: Session 4b discussant comments