Description: We explore four plausible scenarios for how AI might reshape the future, focusing on employment as the main driver. At one extreme, AI boosts productivity, sparks entrepreneurship, and leads to near-full employment through human-AI collaboration and reformed education. At the other end of the spectrum AI-induced mass layoffs trigger an economic spiral, with soaring unemployment, creative stagnation, and societal resentment. The middle path presents a fragmented transition with a two-tier workforce, periodic recessions, and variable adaptation success. Lastly AI fizzles due to poor returns and rising costs, causing economic stagnation and investor losses without widespread disruption. Each scenario also includes potential impacts on the insurance industry, ranging from innovation and growth to regulatory strain and investment losses in the others. Proactive scenario planning, by preparing for multiple futures by identifying early warning signals, adapting plans, and strengthening institutional resilience is encouraged. The article closes with four additional speculative scenarios, including government-controlled AI, AI dominance, militarized AI, and mass surveillance. Ultimately, the piece argues that while AI’s future is uncertain, the choices made today will shape whether it becomes a partner, a threat, or a disappointment.

Description: Obesity rates in the United States have climbed to historic highs, with nearly 42% of adults now classified as obese—a trend with significant implications for the health care system. Among Medicare-aged individuals, obesity is strongly associated with chronic conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease and musculoskeletal disorders, all of which increase health care utilization and spending. As costs continue to rise, understanding the financial impact of obesity management is increasingly important for policymakers, payers and providers. This analysis uses detailed traditional Medicare claims and eligibility data to examine how obesity levels relate to health care expenditures and how costs change as members move between different diagnosed obesity categories over time

Description: This article explores the evolving role of assumption management in the life insurance industry. The article highlights how behavioral, economic, and demographic assumptions are critical to pricing, forecasting, and explaining financial results, yet many insurers still struggle with fragmented practices and outdated processes. Drawing on survey insights from 15 U.S. insurers, the authors illustrate persistent challenges in governance, data integration, and automation. They argue for a more holistic, technology-enabled operating model centered on centralized assumption repositories. Such repositories provide a single source of truth, enable automated ingestion into models, support sensitivity testing, and enhance governance and transparency across actuarial, finance, and risk functions. The article offers guiding principles and design considerations for building scalable repositories that improve efficiency, consistency, and decision-making. Ultimately, it positions assumption management modernization not as a technical upgrade but as a strategic imperative to unlock clarity, agility, and competitive advantage in a complex market.

Description: Critical Illness (CI) insurance in Asia has evolved through data-driven insights, adapting to changing medical, demographic, and lifestyle trends. Gen Re’s CI Data Insights Study, covering Mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, highlights how advances in screening, especially for cancers, have influenced incidence rates and claims. Regular updates to CI definitions and product structures are essential for sustainability, as seen in the handling of thyroid and prostate cancers. Lifestyle factors like BMI also impact cardiovascular risk. A multi-dimensional approach combining robust data monitoring, proactive product updates, and wellness promotion ensures CI insurance remains relevant and sustainable.

Description: Discusses the role of the Board of Governors of a typical corporation, and how an actuary can be well suited to contribute as a Board member.

Description: A article summarizing the SOA 2024 Regional Symposium in Riyadh

Description: During the past few years, performance, cost, and risk trends for Medigap products have undergone substantial changes. Some of these trends could ease cost pressures on Medigap insurers, while others might increase them. Part 1 of this Issue Brief article discusses current changing trends and considerations around about how they are impacting Medigap.

Description: History of Life Insurance insolvencies and evolution of statutory reporting requirements and laws to enable improved control over preventing insolvencies. Reflects my extensive personal knowledge serving on regulatory and industry boards and committees regarding these developments. A key item of solvency control in Risk Based Capital. References provided for FRBC/insolvency data from NAIC and the GAO.

Description: This article helps companies better understand the currently proposed upcoming VM-22 regulation by comparing the VM-22 measurement model to LDTI MRBs. The article highlights key considerations as companies plan for adoption of these two measurement models. These considerations should help inform a company’s strategy related to the business impacted by these standards.

Description: This paper applies the research in Prospect Theory of Kahneman and Tversky to explain why sales of annuities lag sales of life insurance products. The author theorizes that life insurance is easier to sell because customers perceive themselves to be in the domain of losses, while potential annuity customers perceive themselves to be in the domain of gains. Kahneman and Tversky showed us that people are mostly risk averse in the domain of gains and risk seeking in the domain of losses. Purchase of an annuity or life product is a risky investment. Customers will find it easier to take the risk in the life insurance domain of losses than the annuity domain of gains. The author then proposes a hybrid life annuity product that might address both mortality and longevity risk in one product that would allow both products to be more competitive than stand-alone products.