Description: This story won the Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section prize for most novel prediction forming the basis for the narrative in the 2019 Actuarial Speculative Fiction contest.

Description: Uncertainty of a predictive model is a fact of life that many insurers could be overlooking at their peril without a framework for assessing it. The article provides a framework to understand the prediction uncertainty, which can be critical for the insurance operations using predictive models. Coin toss example explains model uncertainty and randomness inherent in making predictions to the number of heads expected. A mortality analysis case study illustrates how the Bayesian methodology can be used to develop the prediction uncertainty. In particular, the article shows that the Bayesian framework is a way to combine historical data and actuarial judgment, and directly address the model uncertainty through its posterior distribution.

Description: Part 2 of the article continues providing data on why IUL income streams need to be managed and suggests techniques that insurance companies could provide to policyholders and advisors to do so. The author also offers his research data free of charge to any actuary who contacts him to request it.

Description: The current coronavirus pandemic has caused a number of challenges for life insurers and this article summarizes the operational challenges, namely in two areas. First, the article will discuss the challenges companies are facing to collect traditional underwriting evidence and potential short-term solutions used to overcome these limitations. Second, the actions companies are taking to alleviate the financial difficulties customers may have paying premiums will be addressed.

Description: Commentary on practical observations resulting from constructing and running Economic Capital models. Possible standardization of assumptions and result interpretation are morphing even though use of E.C. models has now been around for years.

Description: The author discusses the importance of branding yourself and provides ideas to assist you in that process.

Description: The April/May 2013 edition of The Actuary magazine—the Society of Actuaries’ flagship publication.

Description: The February/March 2014 edition of The Actuary magazine—the Society of Actuaries’ flagship publication.

Description: In this article, the interviewers will discuss the pros and cons of centralized modeling function vs a business unit based modeling function. Their experience will help us in identifying factors in contributing to a successful centralized model function and understand how to set expectation with modeling stakeholders.

Description: This article is the first installment of a three-part series that aims to provide an overview of ESGs and will focus on the general motivation for stochastic modeling, its advantages and its limitations. Future articles will further break down the key factors of ESGs and the application of these factors to better understand the Academy Interest Rate Generator (AIRG).