Description: This paper introduces a rich stochastic modeling framework for understanding risks in multiple-decrement contracts. The example in the paper is a 20-year Term insurance contract. Not only are mortality and lapsation considered stochastic, but the parameters governing them are. For example, mortality risk is composed of four risk elements, including error generated in the underwriting process, volatility around the best estimate, catastrophic events that impact mortality, and the trend in mortality improvement or deterioration. When stochastically modeled, the relative contribution and risk profile of each risk element can be evaluated. Generating stochastic mortality results provides a distribution of results that an organization faces and the severity and incidence of the tail events.

Description: Actuaries are accustomed to considering how much conservatism is appropriate in their estimates, whether made for pricing or for mea- surement of liabilities. In the proposals for a new standard on accounting for insurance contracts, this conservatism is referred to by the International Accounting Standards Board IASB and the Financial Accounting Standard Board FASB of the United States as the risk adjustment.

Description: Feature article discussing the IASB’s and FASB’s introduction of the use of other comprehensive income (OCI) to report certain changes in the value of insurance contracts.

Description: ERM and Investment strategies for healthcare companies

Description: The article looks at potential changes in care provider demographics that could ultimately have an impact on the cost of long term care services.

Description: Article discussing a research project to determine the risk selection efficacy of e-underwriting in conjunction with the use of e-data such as MIB, MVR and prescription med history.

Description: Sponsors of DB plans are being forced to focus on their plans as never before. A confluence of events—market downturn, aging workforce and changing legislation/regulation—has meant the status quo no longer applies to companies’ DB plans.

Description: Introduction to academicians, practitioners, and gerontologists who comprise the Funding Longevity Task Force at the American College of Financial Services.

Description: Article suggests future steps with regard to this project and provides information on where to get the essays.

Description: The well-known examples of predictive modeling “successes” are numerous. Perhaps less widely recognized is the myriad of ways in which a predictive model can fail to perform as expected, often due to misconceptions or misrepresentations on the part of the analyst. This article, which is intended for a general actuarial audience, focuses on three such pitfalls. By understanding these three common pitfalls, readers may guard against them within their own work, teams, and organizations.