Description: This story won the Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section prize for most novel prediction forming the basis for the narrative in the 2019 Actuarial Speculative Fiction contest.

Description: Uncertainty of a predictive model is a fact of life that many insurers could be overlooking at their peril without a framework for assessing it. The article provides a framework to understand the prediction uncertainty, which can be critical for the insurance operations using predictive models. Coin toss example explains model uncertainty and randomness inherent in making predictions to the number of heads expected. A mortality analysis case study illustrates how the Bayesian methodology can be used to develop the prediction uncertainty. In particular, the article shows that the Bayesian framework is a way to combine historical data and actuarial judgment, and directly address the model uncertainty through its posterior distribution.

Description: Book review – this book is a concise look at the evolution of formal investment theory and related financial forecasting, with continual contextual references to its ties to gambling and to organized crime.

Description: A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who develops the best actuarial application of a judgmental forecasting method, incorporating best practices outlined in this issue’s article titled “Best Practices in Judgmental Forecasting.” In addition, we will feature the winning application in an issue of the newsletter.

Description: At the 2009 SOA Annual Meeting in Boston, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shared some thoughts on Black Swans, operating in the fourth quadrant, and living in the world of Extremistan versus Mediocristan during his keynote speech, all of which can be found in his published work. The follow-up session, summarized in this article, addresses the real question: What do we actuaries do about these phenomena?

Description: The chairperson of the section council issues call to members asking them to volunteer. He indicates that in particular, with the emergence of complexity science and other underutilized tools, there is plenty of room for volunteers, especially open spaces for new thought leaders.

Description: Specifies 6 rules which help shape not only good crime-scene analysis, but good futures practice, as well. These rules address project management and control.

Description: Discusses how 'insignificant' changes in assumptions can have very significant affects.

Description: A summary of the activities of the Forecasting & Futurism Section, including research initiatives, participation in Delphi studies and sponsoring of seminars.

Description: The purpose of this article is to provide a refresher on regression and times series models so that actuaries will feel more comfortable building forecasting models.