Description: The purpose of the SOA project Modeling Long Term Healthcare Cost Trends for Valuation is to provide a benchmark projection of medical cost increases and provide a user-firendly model for making alternative projections. This paper presents sample output from the model, technical documentation of the model, FAQs, and a review of the literature and references.

Description: An outlook on the health industry incorporating insights from the Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends

Description: COVID has washed over healthcare like a tsunami—things have been tossed in all directions. According to Medicare actuaries, trends have been turned upside down in 2021, but will reverse back in 2023 as medical costs rebound. It is more prudent to base projections on long run trends for a period after the storm, extrapolating from 2026 forward, leaving the intervening turbulence (years 2022 -2025) mostly unspecified.

Description: This review uses historical and contemporary sources to trace the growth of national health expenditures in the US from 1776 to 2026.

Description: Responds to questions received during the webcast with regards to modeling long term medical trends for valuation purposes. Questions cover testing the model against publicly traded companies, the calculation of growth rate in the model, the income multiplier as the population ages, model relevance to Canada, factoring in of extra disease burdens, exclusion of aging in the model, and the effect of the globalization of health care.

Description: The aftershocks of the COVID pandemic will pass --- eventually. Government subsidies and spending soared in 2020 to meet the challenges of the pandemic. Health expenditures leapt from 17.6% of GDP to 19.7%, and then dropped to 18.8% in 2021, and will fall again to 18.2% (projected) in 2022, but are expected to return to the long-run trend by 2024 and gradually rise thereafter. However, during the next few years most attention will be paid to dealing with complex aftershocks from the flood of Covid funding in 2020 and 2021, a surge of inflation in 2022, and a looming recession in 2023.