Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: "Living to 100 in the time of COVID-19: A Study of Late –Life Mortality Trajectories, Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago Swedish Mortality Does Not Decelerate in Recent Cohorts, or Does it? – Roland Rau, Ph. D., Professor, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Marcus Ebeling, Ph.D., Karin Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm Sweden; Kai Kaufhold, Aktuar DAV, Ad Res Advanced Reinsurance Services GmbH, Cologne, Germany; Annika Ziegler, Lukas Stake, Hochschule Koblenz & Ad Res, Germany"

Description: This topic will explore current and upcoming changes to the risk adjustment models and strategies for payers and risk bearing providers to reduce/avoid headwinds and potentially come out on top in the years ahead. We will discuss the timeline, nature and motivation for changes as well as the anticipated associated impacts.

Description: On July 1, 2023, CMS began their latest Medicare Oncology program, Enhancing Oncology Model (EOM) which was the successor to the previous Oncology Care Model (OCM). Despite a high level of interest during the application period, this model has been met with limited participation, with only 44 participants at the start of the program.

Description: The SOA has been continuing to highlight the importance of societal purpose across the global actuarial profession, and as a way to attract and retain the next generation of amazing exam candidates and young members. This session will highlight the variety of activities that the SOA and actuaries of all ages are involved in to further drive the profession's societal purpose.

Description: "How long is long in longevity? – Jesús-Adrian Álvarez, Ph.D. - Danish Labour Market Supplementary Pension Fund (ATP), The Rate of Aging in humans is constant. New evidence – Marcus Ebeling, PhD., Research Group Mathematical and Actuarial Demography, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, Department of Sociology and Demography, University of Rostock, Rostock, Germany; Roland Rau, Ph.D., Professor, Research Group Mathematical and Actuarial Demography, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Håkan Malmström, Ph.D., C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karen Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, C6 Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden Human Lifetimes: Finite But Not Necessarily Bounded – Fei Huang, PhD., School of Risk & Actuarial Studies, UNSW Sydney; Ross Maller, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor, Xu Ning, Ph.D., Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies & Statistics, Australian National University, Brandon Milholland, Ph.D., IQVIA Plymouth Meeting, PA."

Description: "Minimum Social Security Benefit (s) and the Alone Stage of Retirement in the U.S.? – Lori J. Curtis, PhD., Douglas Andrews, FSA, FCIA, Ph.D., University of Waterloo The Importance of Cognitive Health – Gordon Woo,Ph.D., RMS LifeRisks"

Description: Medicare and Medicaid finance more than half of American health care. Medicare and Medicaid are at the forefront of nearly every major change in U.S. health care payments, from DRGs in the 1980s to today’s value-based care. Listen to a conversation with Bruce Pyenson, FSA, MAAA, who recently completed six years as a Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC) commissioner and Stacey Lampkin, FSA, MAAA, who recently completed six years as a Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission (MACPAC) commissioner. Hear about programs’ current challenges, what changes the ex-Commissioners anticipate over the next few years, and how these changes might impact Medicare and Medicaid managed care plans, and spillover into employer-sponsored and individual commercial insurance. By attending this session, you will be able to appreciate the role of Medicare and Medicaid as health care payment change agents and foresee future health care payment changes.

Description: La comprensión y la proyección de la evolución futura de la mortalidad es crucial para decisiones en campos como la salud pública y la planificación de sistemas de seguridad social y pensiones.

Description: A changing workforce on a global scale, along with the cost and administrative burden of running retirement plans, has led to an increasing number of workers without access to company sponsored retirement plans. In addition, even when coverage exists, many national retirement and social security systems lack payout systems that provide true retirement security. Explore different retirement systems and uncover an overview of available and developing solutions to address these gaps in coverage and retirement security.