Description: In this article, the author discusses the new IAA strategic plan for dealing with global financial risk.

Description: Have you ever wondered why patterns persist in the stock market but never change our expected return? Efficient-market theory has been attacked by many sides, especially due to the existence of irrational investors.

Description: This article introduces the reader to probabilistic methods used to model interactions in the financial market place. Three topics are specifically discussed, two concern modeling methods and the other concerns data analysis methods.

Description: The United States has received severe negative press the last several years regarding its massive U.S. federal government debt, currently estimated as of April 2007 at about $8.9 trillion. This article looks at the U.S. debt relative to other countries and also explores the impact on U.S. investments.

Description: “What is the likelihood of market crashes? This article seeks to provide an answer to this and related questions by focusing mainly on the crash of October 1987. Specifically, we shall seek answers to three questions: 1. Given the history of market returns, was the crash of ‘87 unusual? 2. How do conditional variance models such as GARCH behave around periods of extreme moves in the market? 3. What is the impact of the crash on backtesting and performance evaluation?” Editor’s Note: The following article originally appeared in the Winter 1998 issue of The BARRA Newsletter, Horizon, and is reprinted here with permission.

Description: The world is facing a complex and rapidly evolving landscape of risks that threaten global stability and prosperity. From escalating geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts to the looming specter of economic downturns and disruptive technological change, a perfect storm of emerging risks is challenging governments, businesses, and individuals alike. As the interconnected nature of our globalized world amplifies the potential impact of these risks, it has become increasingly crucial for decision-makers to understand and proactively address the multifaceted challenges that lie ahead. This article will explore some of the key emerging risks and their implications, offering insights to help navigate these turbulent times.

Description: If has been noted that the turnover of many investment funds has been quite high in recent years relative to history and very high in absolute terms. There have been fundamental changes in the marketplace that have caused the high turnover. Investment horizons have been shortened. This article discusses the changes.

Description: This article discusses a run on the bank that occurred in the Korean securities market.