Description: What is going on with the exchange rate, anyway? In 2002, $1 U.S. bought $C 1.60, and now in May 2005 you only get $C 1.25—that’s 20 percent less! Where’s it going next? One way to answer that question is with a time series model.

Description: Announcement of an upcoming 2003 Stochastic Modeling Symposium.

Description: This publication presents an exploratory framework that applies volatility signals—specifically the VIX and MOVE indices—to asset allocation decisions. Rather than prescribing a definitive model, the work highlights a potential pathway for linking equity and bond market risk expectations to portfolio construction. The analysis demonstrates how relative volatility between asset classes can inform dynamic weighting, opening the door to more adaptive strategies in shifting market environments. Importantly, this is not intended as a finished methodology, but as a foundation on which more experienced professionals can build. Readers with advanced backgrounds in finance, risk management, or quantitative analysis are encouraged to refine, stress-test, and extend the framework to suit their own investment contexts. By positioning the concept as a starting point rather than a conclusion, the publication invites collaboration and deeper exploration into how volatility-based metrics may enhance long-term allocation models.

Description: This article discusses techniques for modeling credit risk, including discussion of default assumptions and recovery rates.