Description: This is a continuation of an article published for the speculative future contest in 2023. It mentions how the collapse of China would cause a global recession in 2029 due to the current and predicted geopolitical climate in 2023.

Description: The effects of climate change have been widely documented. Whether it’s rising temperatures, more frequent and violent storms or disruption to wild life, there is a consensus in the scientific community that these effects are real. What are the risks and opportunities that climate change brings to an investment portfolio? As society transitions to more sustainable sources of energy and tries to find more sustainable ways to consume, there will be winners and losers. In this presentation, speakers will discuss their process to identify winners in this changing world and highlight the risks to various industries.

Description: In this article, the author discusses the new IAA strategic plan for dealing with global financial risk.

Description: Have you ever wondered why patterns persist in the stock market but never change our expected return? Efficient-market theory has been attacked by many sides, especially due to the existence of irrational investors.

Description: This article introduces the reader to probabilistic methods used to model interactions in the financial market place. Three topics are specifically discussed, two concern modeling methods and the other concerns data analysis methods.

Description: The United States has received severe negative press the last several years regarding its massive U.S. federal government debt, currently estimated as of April 2007 at about $8.9 trillion. This article looks at the U.S. debt relative to other countries and also explores the impact on U.S. investments.

Description: This session from the 1995 SOA New Orleans Meeting reviews trends in savings products including the Index Annuity, the CD annuity, variable life, variable annuities, modified endowment contracts - MEC and shifts in the banking industry. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 21, No. 1.

Description: Interest rates steadily declining ever since the Volcker Fed tackled inflation in the early eighties. Ten years of stimulating monetary policy brought new lows. We should have braced ourselves for a return to neutrality, but that concept remains elusive. We will explore structural issues that have brought rates to these low levels and the potential impacts on the insurance business.

Description: “What is the likelihood of market crashes? This article seeks to provide an answer to this and related questions by focusing mainly on the crash of October 1987. Specifically, we shall seek answers to three questions: 1. Given the history of market returns, was the crash of ‘87 unusual? 2. How do conditional variance models such as GARCH behave around periods of extreme moves in the market? 3. What is the impact of the crash on backtesting and performance evaluation?” Editor’s Note: The following article originally appeared in the Winter 1998 issue of The BARRA Newsletter, Horizon, and is reprinted here with permission.

Description: The world is facing a complex and rapidly evolving landscape of risks that threaten global stability and prosperity. From escalating geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts to the looming specter of economic downturns and disruptive technological change, a perfect storm of emerging risks is challenging governments, businesses, and individuals alike. As the interconnected nature of our globalized world amplifies the potential impact of these risks, it has become increasingly crucial for decision-makers to understand and proactively address the multifaceted challenges that lie ahead. This article will explore some of the key emerging risks and their implications, offering insights to help navigate these turbulent times.