Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: Table featured in the Futures Research Project Provides Insight into Tomorrow's Economic Environment article in The Actuary. Please see the SOA Website research section for the full report on the Delphi Study of Economic Variables. These variables are 1. Change in CPI, 2. 10 Year T-Bill rates, 3. S&P500 rate of return and 4. Corporate Baa Bond Yields.

Description: What Makes the Yield Curve Move?

Description: Announcement of this event, to be held May 6-9, 2012. The theme is 'The Actuarial Profession and Social and Economic Development'.

Description: Applies the economic concept of negative externality (where firms profit but create unacceptable social costs) to systemic of financial institutions. Identifies alternatives to the traditional (Pigou) response of taxing the firm.

Description: Summarizes the state of US government balance sheet and defends the view that inflation will not rise sharply in the next few years.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: A comprehensive literature review summarizing academic and other papers that draw a connection between population structure and asset class returns (or prices).