Description: In this article, the author discusses the capital shortfall an insurer faces because of the longevity risk on immediate annuities.

Description: Economic risk analysis has two dimensions: time and frequency. Asset return varies by time because of economic cycles and economic structural changes. Risk is higher during economic recessions and smaller during economic expansions. In addition, different economic structures may exist at different time scales. Risk measures calculated based on daily, weekly, monthly and yearly historical data can be very different. The appropriate frequency depends on the time horizon of the analysis. Therefore, it is important to measure economic risk at both the time level and the frequency level. However, time series analysis and statistical analysis that have been widely adopted in economic risk analysis focus on only one of the two dimensions. In this paper, wavelet models are used to enhance both time‐invariant analysis and time‐variant analysis. Wavelet models can systematically analyze risk by time and frequency and provide richer information than time series models. Using wavelet models, risk measurement can easily be adjusted based on time horizon in a consistent way. Equity VaR estimation is selected to demonstrate the application of wavelet analysis in risk management.

Description: The article provides an update on the 2019 ERM Symposium with regard to date, location and content (General Sessions and Concurrent Sessions).

Description: In this paper, we propose measures of the risk that the value of the liabilities becomes larger than the value of the assets, and this especially for insurance companies. We study probabilities of mismatching and a degree of mismatching in unsegmented and multidimensional models of the balance, in which we stress the influence of interest rates on the active and passive side of the balance.

Description: Dive into an overview of potential customer value propositions, trends in consumer acceptance and adoption, solving the data portability issue, potential impacts of emerging partner ships with OEMs and more within the auto insurance industry during our latest webcast. Experience interactive dialogue that will allow another dimension of thinking as industry experts provide insights and expertise. Throughout this webcast, you can expect developments in the personal lines automotive telematics-based insurance landscape that will develop a further understanding of the present and future of this industry.

Description: "This session is for liability-side actuaries seeking a summary of asset valuation principles. Topics to be discussed include: Why it's important in today's world to understand both sides of the balance sheet. Yield curves, including spot rates, forward rates, coupon rates and bootstrapping. Duration calculations, including an explanation of modified duration for contracts with embedded options and key rate durations. A summary of today's regulatory environment in the context of embedded options, including MRB, VM-21 and VM-22. Next, we will dive into duration profiles of different asset classes, including CLOs (floating rate), RMBS (negative convexity), traditional bonds and swaps. Lastly, we will discuss risk-neutral scenarios, martingale tests, and applications in hedging MRBs."

Description: In this presentation, we will delve into the realm of structured finance, placing a spotlight on advanced structured finance modeling. This session will first explore the growth of structured assets in the insurance space, and the reasons behind this growth. We will then conduct a deep dive into different credit models underlying the cashflow projections of different types of structured securities, including an overview of approaches for modeling the prepayment rates, default rates, and loss severity. We will also explore how a refined credit model can help insurance companies evaluate the risk-return tradeoff of investing in different structured assets. This session aims to enhance understanding of structured finance products and how to model them.

Description: Modeling Approaches and Challenges focuses on approaches to real world simulation and the challenges and considerations in real world simulation. Topics include: A frequency domain approach to build realistic multi-horizon scenarios. (Ortec approach) Cascade models structure linking models for major asset classes and economic variables. (Moody’s approach) Overview of models, calibrations & approaches within the context of different use cases. Deterministic & stochastic approaches. Importance of model re-calibration flexibility. We will also discuss specific insights into considerations and challenges in real world simulation, which include topics like: Setting capital market assumptions and/or calibration targets. Assumptions about correlation and causality. Calibrating the model to capital markets assumptions. Validating the model against capital market assumptions. Role of history, market data and stylized facts. Importance of back testing. Calibrating the model to multiple investment horizons. Inclusion of alterative asset classes such as private equity, infrastructure, and direct real estate. Associated issues of limited data, illiquidity and greater uncertainty about calibration targets.

Description: Enterprise risk management (ERM) is an orderly or guided conduct of an enterprise to deal with risks. For insurers, ERM requires full support and commitment of the senior management. ERM in the U.S. and Canada has evolved over the years into a complex ecosystem.

Description: This is the disclaimer for the Economic Scenario Generators tool available from the SOA / AAA on the SOA Website.