Description: This session will examine bias from a social science perspective. It will discuss the three types of systemic biases using the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) model. The NIST model details the three types as historical bias, societal bias, and institutionalbias. The session will also provide several examples of each type to provide a framework for identifying the social structure of bias.

Description: The Delphi method is a non-quantitative forecasting approach that is most useful when other forecasting techniques appear to have limited value. The Society of Actuaries (SOA) has had some impressive results from Delphi studies (even quoted in the Wall Street Journal for their uncanny accuracy on long-range predictions). Attend this session to learn about this effective, yet underutilized method of leveraging the wisdom of crowds.

Description: Almost half of recent FDA approvals have been for orphan drugs. This trend is expected to continue in 2023. Orphan drugs are priced more than 30 times higher than non-orphan drugs, therefore their cost burden in aggregate has the potential to overwhelm the budgets of payers, especially that of smaller health plans. Hear how the cost impact analysis for smaller health plans require different considerations than for a larger health plan when modeling the impact of rare diseases.

Description: Reunite with members and non-members in the China actuarial community to discuss recent topics and related issues in areas such as macroeconomic sharing, IFRS 17, product strategy, cross-border communication and discussion, and more. Advance your career through learning and networking opportunities, and share your experiences in the finance and insurance industries, as well as other fields related to actuarial science.

Description: The objective of this paper is to provide a practical guide with concrete case studies to help actuaries implement artificial intelligence and machine learning (AIML) to help accelerate the speed of analysis for life and annuity actuarial modeling. We do so by researching the existing literature regarding AIML and its applicability to stochastic modeling and exploring case studies.

Description: We compare two predictive analytics methods - GLM and GBM in terms of predictiveness vs. interpretability.

Description: Gather with members and non-members in the China actuarial community to discuss recent topics and related issues in areas such as macroeconomic sharing, pension, investment, product strategy, and more.

Description: An introductory article describing how Bayesian statistics has evolved over the past 20 years and why it offers the actuarial discipline powerful tools to better understand and manage risk. Compared with traditional (frequentist) and black-box (machine learning) approaches, Bayesian analysis provides explainable models focused on distributions of estimates instad of simply point estimates.

Description: Session 4B: Impact of GLP-1 Drugs on Health Care Cost Trend and Clinical Outcomes

Description: "Risk adjustment is an important aspect of establishing appropriate capitation rates. When a set of services is carved out for specific management under a sub-capitation, establishing appropriate adjustments for varying levels of underlying risk is more complicated. Dive into analytical and operational challenges and resolutions as presenters share more about developing a risk adjustment model specific to the carve-out of behavioral health services through a real-life case study. You will further explore a definition of the use case, availability of historical data sets, selection of the modeling approach, learnings from the iterative modeling process, and the potential application of the results. After attending this session, you will be able to: Understand why a behavioral health specific-risk adjustment model has business value Understand the unique challenges related to developing risk adjustment on member and cost subsegments Understand the impact of trade-offs between model complexity and interpretability in the context of implementation Increase awareness of data nuances and requirements unique to this type of project Describe analytic techniques that can be investigated for use in projects of similar business objectives"