Description: This report examines the impact on risk scores in risk adjustment models when there are timing differences for model updates and risk factor mappings.

Description: The SOA is pleased to make available a research report providing insight and considerations for the actuarial profession in assessing the potential risk and opportunities of MACRA to both provider and payer organizations.

Description: The Society of Actuaries' Committee on Finance Research (CFR) is seeking proposals for research projects that will produce information, data, theoretical models and/or empirical tools useful to actuaries practicing in investment and other finance-related areas.

Description: The Health Care Cost Trends Strategic Research Committee is looking for research proposals to study the impact of Artificial Intelligence on any of the following elements of healthcare • Evaluate the impact on predictability of financial results • Evaluate the impact on the efficiency of care management techniques applied to members • Compare results to traditional risk adjustment and traditional methodologies of predictive analytics • Determine an overall financial impact of applying AI to identify these high cost claimants.

Description: Genetic algorithms [GAs] and neural networks [NNs] are currently being used in actuarial and financial modeling. Nonetheless, while there is a general awareness of the nature of these techniques, there is often only vague familiarity with the details of how they are implemented. This paper is intended to help alleviate this situation. Its purpose is to present an overview of GAs and NNs, which includes an explanation of what they are, how they work, and an example of how they are implemented.

Description: This paper reviews the applications of operations research methods in the insurance industry. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1995, Vol. 47.

Description: Process risk, estimation error, model uncertainty, trend risk and catastrophe risk are the five main components of longevity risk uncertainty. In the face of this daunting uncertainty, what should the actuarial practitioner do? This session focuses on assessing model uncertainty, process risk and estimation error in mortality modeling. Besides discussing the theory behind methods for performing the assessment, presenters provide attendees with practical examples using R to help them in applying the methodologies and concepts presented.

Description: Mortality improvement rates for AG38 for 2017.

Description: This paper uses arbitrage principles to show that equating expected costs unfairly lowers risk-adjusted costs for early generations and raises them for later generations. The use of expected rather than risk-adjusted returns on risky assets leads to sub-optimal decision making in re asset allocations, wage/pension negotiations, granting of valuable options (skim funds), and costly financing strategies such as Pension Obligation Bonds.

Description: The project goals are: • Illustrate an analytical framework using stochastic forecasts and efficient frontiers for hypothetical retirees, for determining retirement income generators (RIGs) that could be offered in a DC retirement plan. • Determine the RIGS or combination of RIGs that could be considered optimal according to specified criteria. • Encourage plan participants, plan sponsors, and advisors to adopt a portfolio approach to developing retirement income strategies.