Description: As a life reinsurer, understanding mortality risk is mission critical. Superior models of mortality risk lead to more competitive pricing in profitable market segments and more efficient use of capital. Surprisingly, modern statistical tools such as predictive modeling have not previously been used to model mortality data to gain this edge. In this paper, we present the use of a predictive modeling technique called projection pursuit regression PPR to model mortality data. We first describe the process of creating a PPR model using inter-company mortality data collected by the Individual Life Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries, and present the resulting model. We then discuss the process of using this model as a starting point for creating a more detailed PPR model of internal company mortality data.

Description: This paper discusses both the theoretical and the application aspects of stress testing in managing enterprise risks. Effective stress testing maximizes the risk adjusted enterprise profit by controlling major risks financial, strategic, operational and hazard upon identifying risk metrics and modeling the correlations. A case study is included for demonstration purposes.

Description: In order to better understand the finitude of life it must be divided into its four components: aging, longevity determination, age-associated disease and death. Age changes result from the increasing rate of biomolecular disorder that, after reproductive maturation, exceeds repair and turnover capacity. These are stochastic or chance events governed by entropy or the tendency for concentrated energy to disperse when unhindered.

Description: In order to better understand the finitude of life it must be divided into its four components: aging, longevity determination, age-associated disease and death. Age changes result from the increasing rate of biomolecular disorder that, after reproductive maturation, exceeds repair and turnover capacity. These are stochastic or chance events governed by entropy or the tendency for concentrated energy to disperse when unhindered.

Description: Discussion of 2008 Living to 100 General Session 4.

Description: The history of life expectancy LE in India and its trend thus far as recorded in the various censuses over the decades. A study on the results of experience studies in the Indian context vis-à-vis the United States and European countries has been attempted since the LE in India is following more or less on the same lines with a time lag of about 50 years.

Description: Discussion of Symposium Session 3B. Papers presented: Living to 100 - A Women's Issue Evaluation of Approaches to Reducing Women's Longevity Risk Estimates of Incidence, Prevalence, Duration, Intensity, and Cost of Chronic Disability among the US Elderly

Description: Transcript of the Q&A period from session 3B. Session focused on Women's longevity issues and Chronic Disability Measurement and cost.

Description: Paper estimates the burden of chronic disability on the U.S. elderly population, using sex-specific measures of long-term care LTC service use, intensity and costs.

Description: Logistic-type models for the force of mortality like those introduced by Perks or Kannisto provide better fit to mortality data of people aged over 85 than Makeham’s model where the force of mortality increases exponentially with age. However, the difficulty in estimating their parameters by the maximum likelihood method makes their use less popular among actuaries.