Description: Exam study notes on credibility theory.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: This article addresses issues of importance to HMO excess reinsurance purchasers when negotiating a reinsurance treaty.

Description: The influenza pandemic of 1918-20 is recognized as having generally taken place in three waves, starting in the northern spring and summer of 1918. This pattern of three waves, however, was not universal: in some locations influenza seems to have persisted into or returned in 1920. The recorded statistics of influenza morbidity and mortality are likely to be a significant understatement. Limitations of these data can include nonregistration, missing records, misdiagnosis, and nonmedical certification, and may also vary greatly between locations. Further research has seen the consistent upward revision of the estimated global mortality of the pandemic, which a 1920s calculation put in the vicinity of 21.5 million. A 1991 paper revised the mortality as being in the range 24.7-39.3 million. This paper suggests that it was of the order of 50 million. However, it must be acknowledged that even this vast figure may be substantially lower than the real toll, perhaps as much as 100 percent understated.

Description: Excel file from Health Pricing Boot Camp Session 1: Basic Trend Forecasting Model Case Study

Description: The purpose of this discussion is to introduce a few additional points and discuss how different assumptions will alter the results in some cases.

Description: One-page overview of monograph contents. From Actuarial Considerations in Insurance Mergers and Acquisitions, M-FI03-1.

Description: Role of the Actuary: One of the most complicated tasks an actuary can perform is large-scale corporate modeling in an attempt to shed light on the relationship between value, performance and risk. In specialized situations such as mergers and acquisitions, it may be appropriate to have external actuaries perform the work rather than attempt the task with internal resources. From Actuarial Considerations in Insurance Mergers and Acquisitions, M-FI03-1.

Description: Bibliography. From Actuarial Considerations in Insurance Mergers and Acquisitions, M-FI03-01.

Description: This paper develops a model of annuity mortality that facilitates a more thorough evaluation of the issues of policyholder antiselection and insurance company response. Aging occurs as an annuitant's health state changes. Death occurs either as terminal health state or by accident. By knowing the current health state, the annuitant or insurance company can improve its knowledge about life expectancy.