Description: The monograph walks the reader through the hindsight, insight and foresight building process while discussing theoretical and practical issues supporting the building of valid forecasts with provenance for each of these schema examples. That is, the analyst can document the iterative ‘profiling change processes’ mindscape and landscape elements by which and through which the successful forecast is built. This kind of forecast construction ameliorates the ‘black box’ problem of generating pattern output without an understanding of the pattern’s creation or contextual meaning that is often seen when using other methods, particularly machine learning and artificial intelligence. This issue is discussed, referencing appropriate thought leaders.

Description: This is the sixth Intercompany Study of Long–Term Care Insurance. This report combines and analyzes data received from 35 insurers. Available data was collected on policies issued between January 1, 1984 and December 31, 2007. Claims incurred on policies during this same timeframe were followed from claim inception through the earlier of claim termination or June 30, 2008.

Description: To expand our understanding of the theory of behavioral economics and its application to life and health insurance policyholder and annuitant behavior, the Society of Actuaries' Committee on Knowledge Extension Research, Committee on Life Insurance Research and the Financial Reporting Section issued a call for papers, inviting actuaries, academics, economists, psychologists, sociologists, researchers and other professionals to explore this topic from a variety of perspectives.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: This SOA report provides an overview and analysis of the mortality models, theories and trends contained in the papers presented at the past four international Living to 100 symposia.

Description: This paper investigates techniques for the assessment of model error in the context of insurance risk analysis.

Description: Authored by a MIB Solutions team of Tom Rhodes, Stuart Klugman, Marianne Purushotham and Stacy Gill, the report summarizes the results of a study on the application and adoption of credibility theory within the life insurance and annuity industry. In addition to the report, numerical examples related to the application of credibility to company mortality and lapse data are provided in the four Excel files. This excel spreadsheet is a numerical example relating to the application of Credibility for mortality. Please see the SOA website research section for the complete report on Credibility Theory Practices.

Description: This research project examines operational risk management practices and assess the viability of ORM as a formal discipline. A key goal of this initiative has been to determine whether the management of operational risk is feasible, and, if so, what issues need to be addressed in order to effectively implement ORM within a broader ERM context.

Description: The Required Minimum Distribution [RMD] Working Group of the SOA Taxation Section has completed research identifying considerations for actuaries and annuity insurers in determing the actuarial present value of additional benefits for computing the RMD under a deferred annuity contract. This is the Appendix I spreadsheet for determining the Actuarial Present Value of an annuitization bonus. Please see the SOA website research for the full report and other associated spreadsheets.