Description: In the past months, as COVID-19 has forced the reduced activity in the U.S. economy there has been some very substantial, but varied effects on the U.S. healthcare system. There is a lot of potential for confusion amongst providers and patients with regards to decisions related to which services ought to be rendered and which ought to be deferred. Two specific agencies – the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), and the American College of Surgeons (ACS) have put together some guidance to add more clarity towards what types of services should be provided and what types ought to be deferred. In addition, this paper includes a discussion on what types of services are most likely to be deferred, and which ones will accrue pent-up demand to be released when many of the deferred services become available again.

Description: The Society of Actuaries (SOA) commissioned Milliman to develop this report to provide health care stakeholders—patients, payers, policymakers and actuaries—with a comprehensive description of DPC as well as an objective actuarial evaluation of certain claims made about the DPC model of care.

Description: This study estimates the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and reported deaths by hospital referral regions (HRR) using Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 data by U.S. county and the Dartmouth Atlas Project division of counties into HRRs.

Description: The Society of Actuaries has developed and released a health care forecast model to illustrate the potential impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on insurance plan health care costs in the United States. Users of the model may include insurance company actuaries seeking an additional reference point for 2021 cost development, regulatory actuaries seeking additional insights and validation of costs as part of rating submissions for 2021, and insurance purchasers seeking a deeper understanding of the forces driving 2021 health care costs and premiums. The model is not intended as a replacement for existing modeling tools developed by insurers or regulators. Rather, the model’s primary purpose is to illustrate the key outbreak-related forces that are affecting the trajectory of health care costs. In addition the model can provide a common reference point to facilitate dialogue with respect to the regulatory review of 2021 health insurance rate filings.

Description: This report provides highlights of a weekly survey of practices regarding the mitigation of the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. during the first half of January 2021 along with comparisons to prior half-month time periods. The survey asks about the degree to which the respondents perceive that people in their community are following 21 common mitigation practices. The responses are separated by state and compared to state level statistics regarding the level of COVID-19 infections from the Johns Hopkins COVID database for the same time period.

Description: This paper helps the audience understand the actuary’s role in estimating the financial impact of primary care programs. In addition, the paper can be used by actuaries to think about key issues when estimating the financial impact of their employers’ and clients’ own primary care programs.

Description: Max Rudolph's winning essay.

Description: The always popular Medicaid Hot Topics session is back with discussions from an expert panel on the most riveting Medicaid topics of the year. These could include the following: • Medicaid Fiscal Accountability Proposed Regulations• Tennessee's Block Grant Proposal• ACA court battles: What are the potential impacts on Medicaid? • Pass-through payments are converting to directed payments: What is changing?• And more current topics of interest to Medicaid actuariesMedicaid is dynamic and it is difficult to stay current on all of the changes. This session provides insightful discussion into the major changes that impact actuaries and their companies or state clients.

Description: “E-Cigarettes: A Hazard or a Help?” by Sam Gutterman was published online in the North American Actuarial Journal on December 18, 2019, and in print in Volume 24, 2020–Issue 4. This essay is the author’s update to the original paper; it has not been peer-reviewed. The essay is solely an expression of the views, opinions, and ideas of the essay author for applying the original research to actuarial work.

Description: Session 1C: Group Life Experience Update