Description: The Predictive Analytics Seminar is a unique event that allows experts in the practice areas of life, health, and P&C to come together and explore the vast world of predictive analytics.

Description: The instructors in this boot camp session will highlight the SOA's work on an updated Medicaid underwriting margin model. This research project includes an excel model, a set of instructions and a paper describing the key components of underwriting margin, including cost of capital and risk margin.

Description: You are the actuary in the room. As you select, recommend or evaluate a pension return assumption, the process should be rooted in sound principles of mathematics, finance and forecasting whether in multi-employer and public sectors or certain private sector situations. Both theory and practical application serve to guide you with useful tools when providing professional actuarial services concerning pension return assumptions. Explore new frontiers in well-accepted underlying models and analytical (closed form) formulas.

Description: One major feature of the OECD's two-pillar regime is that MNEs would base the calculation of taxes due on book-based financial statements. The article provides a summary of how these rules operate along with suggested actions insurers can take today to prepare for timely compliance.

Description: Accelerated underwriting expert, Ryan Holt, FSA, gives a brief history of the confusion matrix and how its use came into the accelerated underwriting space. An in depth discussion of estimating mortality impact using underwriting audits follows. Three key assumptions that effect mortality impact are discussed. Readers will leave with an understanding of how to estimate mortality impacts using audit results from any new under writing program as well as the considerations that should be taken around key assumptions. Background articles are provided for readers that are less familiar with the subject matter.

Description: Life and annuity markets around the world have seen increasingly complex investment-combined products, including universal life, fixed indexed annuities, variable annuities with a wide variety of guaranteed benefits and indexed variable annuities. Insurance companies are facing unprecedented exposure to financial risks in addition to traditional mortality and longevity risks. The risk assessment and modeling for such complex designs by conventional methods often focus heavily on their market competitiveness and profitability. However, there seems to be a lack of quantifiable and systematic approaches to assess investment risks associated with investment combined products. The objective of the proposed work is to develop a framework for quantifying and analyzing various forms of contractual designs and showcase different techniques to assess the trade-off between competitive contractual designs and their practical implications regarding the difficulty of risk management.

Description: The article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. mortality trends, noting that despite a decrease in COVID-19 deaths due to better treatments and vaccinations, excess mortality persists, especially among younger adults due to accidental causes. It discusses the challenges of predicting future mortality trends, considering factors like medical advancements and societal changes. The article also highlights the potential of new medical technologies and AI to significantly improve health outcomes in the future. Overall, it underscores the complex interplay of various factors influencing mortality in the post-pandemic era.

Description: This presentation proposes a solution to the student actuarial paradox “I mastered the syllabus but failed the exam,” by utilizing the two-dimensional syllabus vehicle which pedagogically focuses on the two dimensions of content and problem difficulty. This presentation advocates the PMR characterization of three levels of problems difficulty: Plug-ins (easy), Monkey-wrench (intermediate), and Research-type(hard) questions. PMR was developed by examining difficulty levels in SOA exams, and problems of various software vendors. The author's students routinely score high on the SOA FM exam; it is hoped that these methods will assist other instructors in their quest for good pedagogy. Very briefly: “Plug-ins,” refer to multi-part problems, for example, calculating the price of an annuity that is first increasing and then level; “Monkey-wrench” problems specifically refer to plug-in multi-part problems where one component is a monkey-wrench, an issue the candidate has not previously encountered. It might be a non-typical modeling or it might be a non-typical algebraic simplification or it might be an unexpected integration of distinct modules in a manner that the candidate has not yet seen. “Research-type questions” refer to problems requiring some type of experimentation for example, looking at initial cases, seeing a pattern and then applying methods

Description: This article discusses considerations for statistical biases that may arise in LTC blocks due to historical benefit reductions. The article explores these biases in the context of experience studies and experience projections.