Description: This paper develops a formal framework to model the behavior of individual and small group health insurance policies in a competitive market. In this framework, anti-selective lapse is not assumed, but arises as a result of rational consumers seeking the best value in a competitive market where the premium rates are restricted by law. The authors obtain a model that addresses a number of fundamental questions which have not been fully answered previously, including the effect of price-induced anti-selective lapse on the mix of insureds in a block and the optimal renewal price to maximize the aggregate profit of a block.

Description: A statistical estimate is obtained for the total number of nodes in a three level tree. The number of nodes at each level is randomly distributed with certain pattern of distribution. Then the result is applied to the problem of estimating the LRA [logical record access] in data base design in a more refined way. It is more refined in the sense of using more information contained in the empirical distributions and being associated with a probability statement.

Description: This paper critiques and supplements Professor Schuette's 'Linear Programming Approach to Graduation.' The main points are: 1. The graduation is a problem of estimating the mean vector of a multivariate variable under certain assumptions. Schuette and other discussants emphasized the robustness property of their proposed estimation. This paper points out their mistake and suggests some correcting directions based on Bayesian theory. 2. This paper provides a more complete theoretical rationale for the parameter choosing in the graduation problem. 3. This paper points out the incompleteness of a theorem's proof in Schuette's paper and supplements some interpretations and mathematical details for the proof of some other theorems from a different viewpoint.

Description: This paper examines the models underlying three of the most influential FAHP articles.

Description: This presentation shows that, if the options or guarantees are exercisable only at the moment of death of the policyholder, the mathematics simplifies to an elementary calculus exercise.

Description: The document is a research paper titled "Risk Analysis of the Causes of Food Deserts" authored by Lillian Wang, Audrey Hong, Jaden Chen, and Aaroh Tak for the Modeling the Future Challenge 2023-2024. It analyzes food desert risk factors, forecasts food desert rates, and proposes risk mitigation strategies based on statistical modeling and data analysis.

Description: Principle-Based Reserving (PBR) is now upon us! Are you ready? Learn how Swiss Re's PBR Experience Sharing Solution can help you navigate this change.

Description: This article provides an overview of the commonly used structural credit risk modeling approach that is less familiar to the actuarial community.

Description: This article talks about the role that models played in the subprime meltdown and the subsequent crisis in the financial markets in general. The models failed to provide information about the magnitude of potential 'black swans'. Extreme Value Theory [EVT] is described as a potential solution to this error.

Description: Book review of Extreme Risk Management: Revolutionary Approaches to Evaluating and Measuring Risk by author Christina Ray.