Description: Read the April 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics & Futurism Section of the Society of Actuaries.

Description: Many life and health insurers are beginning to use Predictive Analytics (PA) for a variety of purposes. This article addresses the unique challenges and potential disruption PA brings to the risk manager, as well as the opportunities.

Description: As a film major in college with a dream to shoot movies, it’s safe to say Michael had a nontraditional start to his career in predictive analytics.

Description: After a decade of traditional actuarial work in health care, David Sotelo was seeking a new kind of opportunity to make an impact. He found it at Collective Health, where he works with a team of actuaries and data scientists that use analytics to streamline health insurance.

Description: Data is everywhere. Health care generates as much as 30% of the world’s data, and new technologies are changing how life insurers analyze consumer information. Actuaries are business-savvy problem solvers. They understand how to leverage the latest technologies and techniques to turn data into actionable insights and solutions for businesses and can communicate those findings to multiple audiences. SOA-credentialed actuaries use predictive analytics to inform organizational and business strategies, with efforts such as identifying chronic conditions in their early stage or determining stress levels through sweat patterns.

Description: Are Accelerated Underwriting (AU) programs performing as expected? As mortality experience will (hopefully) be slow to emerge, it is pivotal that we look at alternative methods of monitoring early performance. From random hold outs, to post-issue APS's, and post-issue prescription profiles, explore popular monitoring techniques and lessons learned so far. Focus on confusion matrices that provide an early indication of mortality slippage relative to fluid-based underwriting decisions. Finally, explore statistical methods to determine what constitutes credibility and identify opportunities to think about mortality slippage more robustly.

Description: Hop into a panel discussion between InsurTech Advisory Council and a startup, followed by a demo of life event prediction and analyses with multiple applications across financial services. You will also learn about: the SOA office hours program and member participation, the startup ecosystem filled with incubators, company contests, opportunities and outcomes, how to build a data set providing additional insights for customization and enhanced user experience, and - actuaries' engagement with startup strategic advisory boards.

Description: "Modern actuarial work, being highly data-intensive, offers many opportunities for actuaries to apply the statistical skills gained through their basic training. Advances in computing allow us to analyze vast quantities of data efficiently, and many software packages provide statistical 'answers' to almost any question an actuary might ask. However, in this field, it is often worth taking a step back, and ensuring that we recall and consider the warnings that come with each of the statistical procedures we might attempt to use. This will allow us to ensure that we guard ourselves against drawing inappropriate conclusions, which could come back to haunt us later. At the conclusion of the session, attendees will be able to avoid drawing inappropriate statistical conclusions while doing their work. They will leave informed about the types of pitfalls that exist and where those might come into play in actuarial work."

Description: Risk adjustment is widely used by public and private payers in value-based contracting and other risk-sharing arrangements aimed at addressing population health. Addressing social determinants of health (SDOH) and improving equitable outcomes is one of the aims of population health. Could SDOH be incorporated into risk adjustment? If so, how and how effectively? What implications might this have for market participants? In this session, Joan Barret, FSA, MAAA, from Axene Health Partners will begin by presenting background and findings from the 2022 SOA research report 'How Does Where you Live Impact Your Health?.' This is a question addressed through deep literature review and quantitative analysis, followed by an exploration of strategic approaches and barriers for payers and providers that wish to address SDOH inequities. Then, Rong Yi, FSA, MAAA, and Jeff Milton-Hall, FSA, MAAA, from Milliman will present their new SOA-sponsored analysis regarding integration of SDOH factors into Medicaid managed care risk adjustment. They will cover risk adjustment design considerations, policy and operational considerations for actuaries and states that wish to integrate SDOH into risk adjustment, simulated variation in financial outcomes for risk-bearing organizations when such integration occurs, and variation in the relationship of SDOH factors and morbidity to modeled risk across programs and populations. At the conclusion of the session, attendees will leave equipped to think critically and act effectively with respect to SDOH in their own work, from measurement and analysis design to actuarial interventions.

Description: Join us as we delve into the dynamic landscape of the Fixed Indexed Annuity industry. Presenters will discuss trends observed in recent FIA experience, observations from their own company's data, and findings from Milliman's FIA industry experience studies. Key results include a view of surrender behavior relative to market dynamics and comparisons with industry predictive models, serving as a benchmark to explore where industry experience aligns with expectations and where potential surprises have emerged. Through a combination of data-driven analysis and expert interpretation, attendees will gain valuable perspectives on the evolving FIA landscape, enabling them to make informed decisions to navigate future challenges.