Description: Can you answer the question, 'What are the chances we will lose more than $1 million?' without saying, 'It depends'? If you miss a projection, can you estimate the chances that the miss was due to random variation versus an incorrect projection? Listen in as presenters demonstrate how to answer these questions and others using total risk analysis. Total risk analysis includes quantifying both the random variation risk and the projection risk associated with actuarial functions like pricing and reserving. After attending this session, you will be able to describe total risk analysis and to apply to many health actuarial functions.

Description: Join us for a lively discussion on how accelerated underwriting (AU) practices have evolved over time and specifically because of COVID-19.

Description: Risk adjustment (RA) is a key component for CMS Medicare Advantage program and California Medicaid Managed Care program. While both RA programs follow generally accepted basic principles at a high level, their underlying methodologies and assumptions are also quite different. Due to recent events such as COVID-19 Public Health Emergency and Medicaid redetermination delay and restart, it adds complexity to Risk Adjustment. This is a hot topic in the industry and has significant impact to health plans. Keeping current with risk adjustment program changes and understanding the commonalities and differences of these two government risk adjustment programs is important to our health actuaries. Compare these two risk adjustment programs so you can learn key elements of a risk adjustment program, similarities and differences in methodology and assumptions , as well as special considerations due to serving different populations.

Description: In this presentation, actuaries and data scientists from Cleveland Clinic and Milliman discuss the development of a sepsis prediction model using machine learning. Presented with a unique challenge of handling massive amounts of data for near real-time risk scoring, the team took their model development to the cloud and delivered a product in less than a week through a unique virtual engagement.

Description: Hop into a panel discussion between InsurTech Advisory Council and a startup, followed by a demo of life event prediction and analyses with multiple applications across financial services. You will also learn about: the SOA office hours program and member participation, the startup ecosystem filled with incubators, company contests, opportunities and outcomes, how to build a data set providing additional insights for customization and enhanced user experience, and - actuaries' engagement with startup strategic advisory boards.

Description: Are Accelerated Underwriting (AU) programs performing as expected? As mortality experience will (hopefully) be slow to emerge, it is pivotal that we look at alternative methods of monitoring early performance. From random hold outs, to post-issue APS's, and post-issue prescription profiles, explore popular monitoring techniques and lessons learned so far. Focus on confusion matrices that provide an early indication of mortality slippage relative to fluid-based underwriting decisions. Finally, explore statistical methods to determine what constitutes credibility and identify opportunities to think about mortality slippage more robustly.

Description: What is bias? How do you recognize it? What to do if you see it? This webcast will help respond to these questions and provide initial guidance on how to deal with these thorny issues. Please join us with your questions and we will have a nice conversation.

Description: Risk adjustment is widely used by public and private payers in value-based contracting and other risk-sharing arrangements aimed at addressing population health. Addressing social determinants of health (SDOH) and improving equitable outcomes is one of the aims of population health. Could SDOH be incorporated into risk adjustment? If so, how and how effectively? What implications might this have for market participants? In this session, Joan Barret, FSA, MAAA, from Axene Health Partners will begin by presenting background and findings from the 2022 SOA research report 'How Does Where you Live Impact Your Health?.' This is a question addressed through deep literature review and quantitative analysis, followed by an exploration of strategic approaches and barriers for payers and providers that wish to address SDOH inequities. Then, Rong Yi, FSA, MAAA, and Jeff Milton-Hall, FSA, MAAA, from Milliman will present their new SOA-sponsored analysis regarding integration of SDOH factors into Medicaid managed care risk adjustment. They will cover risk adjustment design considerations, policy and operational considerations for actuaries and states that wish to integrate SDOH into risk adjustment, simulated variation in financial outcomes for risk-bearing organizations when such integration occurs, and variation in the relationship of SDOH factors and morbidity to modeled risk across programs and populations. At the conclusion of the session, attendees will leave equipped to think critically and act effectively with respect to SDOH in their own work, from measurement and analysis design to actuarial interventions.

Description: Join us as we delve into the dynamic landscape of the Fixed Indexed Annuity industry. Presenters will discuss trends observed in recent FIA experience, observations from their own company's data, and findings from Milliman's FIA industry experience studies. Key results include a view of surrender behavior relative to market dynamics and comparisons with industry predictive models, serving as a benchmark to explore where industry experience aligns with expectations and where potential surprises have emerged. Through a combination of data-driven analysis and expert interpretation, attendees will gain valuable perspectives on the evolving FIA landscape, enabling them to make informed decisions to navigate future challenges.

Description: "Modern actuarial work, being highly data-intensive, offers many opportunities for actuaries to apply the statistical skills gained through their basic training. Advances in computing allow us to analyze vast quantities of data efficiently, and many software packages provide statistical 'answers' to almost any question an actuary might ask. However, in this field, it is often worth taking a step back, and ensuring that we recall and consider the warnings that come with each of the statistical procedures we might attempt to use. This will allow us to ensure that we guard ourselves against drawing inappropriate conclusions, which could come back to haunt us later. At the conclusion of the session, attendees will be able to avoid drawing inappropriate statistical conclusions while doing their work. They will leave informed about the types of pitfalls that exist and where those might come into play in actuarial work."