Description: This paper defines health expectancy as that part of life expectancy where the person is expected to be healthy. It also breaks down the remainder of life expectancy into two unhealthy categories, one where assisted living will be necessary, and one where a skilled nursing facility will be necessary. These expectations are calculated for many combinations of age, other demographic characteristics, and current health issues.

Description: Under non-Aristotelian logic, there are multiple values, or shades of gray. Indeed, there may even be unexpected results from logical combinations, like “both” and “neither.” This article discusses how this insight should be applied to the current debate between formula-driven reserves with limited assumption flexibility and the reserve principles approach. For reserve standards, we do need both actuarial judgment grounded in reserving principles and restrictive formula methods or safe harbors.

Description: The article highlights key considerations as companies begin to reserve for their IUL products under PBR.

Description: This paper discusses approaches for reporting pre-need plans in the Phillipines under the generally accepted accounting principles of the United States “U.S. GAAP. In particular, a focus is on contracts accounted for under SFAS 97 investment-oriented contracts.

Description: Update on issues, priorities and key messages from the Joint CAS / CIA / SOA Risk Management Section Council.

Description: By necessity, attributions of financial processes require approximations. Tools used for approximations include Aumann-Shapley, time step, step-through, average step-through, partial derivative, and average partial derivative. Significantly non-linear paths can cause problems during attribution. Time (theta) and market factors must be handled concurrently. Typically contractual factors can be handled separately. Average Step-Through, Aumann-Shapley and Aumann-Shapley-3 points perform the best given the same time period. Attribution should be done with fairly small time steps as opposed to using a lot of points in the Aumann-Shapley calculation, but using Aumann-Shapley-3 points as a last step has some advantages.

Description: Hear from the chairperson on themes in the March 2017 issue of Health Watch, published by the Health Section.

Description: We highlight a new approach leveraging predictive analytics to identify high risk and rising risk opioid users for more effective screening and follow-up care.