Description: This paper examines the funding expectations of the three primary stakeholders in the pension system: plan sponsors, taxpayers, and workers. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Best Model Doesn't Win

Description: Investment Fallacies: The "Dollar Bill" Fallacy

Description: The author constructed the efficient frontier of new business sales by modeling the embedded value and economic capital against a universe of possible growth rates of the three lines of business in a typical three-year planning horizon. The ERM function can use the efficient frontier of new business to provide a more rigorous analysis of the impact of growth rates on the firm’s overall capital efficiency and value creation, hence forming a feedback loop with the businesses in the planning process to optimize the growth strategy.

Description: The Retirement Plans Experience Committee (RPEC) hired Ernst & Young to perform a literature review and assessment of mortality improvement rates in the United States population.

Description: This study was sponsored by the Society of Actuaries Health Section. This paper explores the relative significance of aging as a determinant of financial cost of health care beyond age 50, with particular attention to the effect for ages 65 and older. The paper presents concepts of aging factors and aging curves, which define relative values between ages for utilization or cost of health care services. General conclusions are drawn from Medicare data that utilization and cost differ by age, but that aging factors vary across services and may be less significant at very old ages. The author then turns to the question of measuring the significance of an aging curve assumption and what accuracy is lost in the simpler alternative of a single value across an age range.

Description: Appendix to the Critical Review of Stochastic Simulation Literature and Applications for Health Actuaries. The Development of a Simulation Model of Primary Prevention Strategies for Coronary Heart Disease

Description: The effects of climate change have been widely documented. Whether it’s rising temperatures, more frequent and violent storms or disruption to wild life, there is a consensus in the scientific community that these effects are real. What are the risks and opportunities that climate change brings to an investment portfolio? As society transitions to more sustainable sources of energy and tries to find more sustainable ways to consume, there will be winners and losers. In this presentation, speakers will discuss their process to identify winners in this changing world and highlight the risks to various industries.

Description: This is a stochastic model used to find the distribution of the discounted value of all future cash-flows.

Description: This paper presents a methodology of pricing the guaranteed minimum death benefit of a variable annuity in a market model with jumps. Recent developments in the stock market make variable annuities very attractive products from the insured point of view, but less attractive for insurers. The insured still has the possibility of investment benefits, while avoiding the risk of a stock market collapse. The insurer wants to minimize its risk and yet sell a competitive product. The financial market model consists of one riskless asset and one risky asset whose price jumps in proportions J at some random times T which correspond to the jump times of a Poisson process. The model describes incomplete markets and there is no perfect hedging. In the second part of the paper, we describe a possible method of risk analysis for binomial tree models.