Description: Forming a view on what the tail looks like for various risk factors involves both technical know-how and considerable judgment. The presenters focus on what needs to be addressed when setting financial market risk and insurance risk assumptions, in particular when assessing the question of diversification and the treatment of tail dependencies between risks and lines of business:

Description: Baseline and "what if"/stressed projections of cash flows, financial statements and capital requirements are critical inputs for a range of business purposes: forecasts, risk management, liquidity management, strategic decision making, etc. Forward-looking projections have historically been inefficient and were performed in silos, making it difficult to scale the process as CFOs and CROs ask for more. The presenters discuss challenges of the forecast process and opportunities to meet desired future capabilities. They will also discuss "what if" analysis and ways to support production of forward-looking projections for "what if" analysis in an efficient way.

Description: Climate change is making a significant economic impact into the work that actuaries do. Actuaries working in general insurance have been at the forefront of this work for many years. Now, actuaries in investments, pensions, life and health insurance as well as enterprise risk management are considering the risks of climate change and quantifying the impact of climate change in their modeling. Actuaries can expect to hear of these developments in actuarial circles with speakers representing the Society of Actuaries, the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the Casualty Actuarial Society, the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (UK) and/or the International Actuarial Association.

Description: There will be no easy resolution to the current trade friction between the U.S. and China. If anything, the motivations for increasing protectionism are set to intensify. What are these motivations? Where is this trade war headed? And what impact could this have on economies and financial markets?

Description: Retirees will face the societal issue of inadequate savings with likely insufficient time to rectify the situation. They need immediate growth, but also the disciplines of risk management. They typically do not know how to engage with these two aspects in a harmonious manner on their own. Insurance companies are in the business of providing the solution but regulators have been clamping down in favor of simpler and more transparent products. In addition, the market reality over the last decade has been that insurers have stock betas at a multiple to the general markets with PE ratios well below. A panel of senior professionals from writers of retirement product business will present their vision of how the insurance industry can address the above dilemma, including the risks underlying the writing of the business, impact of financial markets, and regulations in the development of the business.

Description: Regulatory change and increased focus on internal risk management are driving a renewed interest in model efficiency. In this session, we will review several new and existing tools, that show significant promise for advanced modeling of equity linked products. These include: • Clustering • Use of unique--and potentially a different number of--scenarios for each policy • Semi Monte Carlo (SMC) – this is a proprietary technique that is similar to a combination of Monte Carlo and numeric integration • Using a neural network approach to optimize some of the more complex and manual aspects of clustering and improve the fit of the clustered model • Combining SMC with the use of unique scenarios per policy

Description: Risk management techniques such as stress testing and setting capital targets are fairly well established for life insurers; however, the implementation of these techniques can vary considerably. A fundamental question is how to manage multiple valuation perspectives, and the list of possibilities keeps growing. Companies can potentially consider some or all of the following: U.S. reporting measures (Stat, GAAP), internal measures (EV, VNB, economic capital), international reporting measures (IFRS), rating agency models or other developing standards (ICS, NAIC group capital). This session will begin with a quick overview of the defining characteristics of different valuation frameworks. We will then provide more focused and practical considerations for managing risk and capital under different frameworks, using specific examples to highlight key trade offs.

Description: The presenters will discuss the current interest rate market environment and what insurance companies can do to best protect themselves from interest rate risk. The presenters, industry leaders in financial risk management, will explore how different products and strategies—including swaps, options, and other derivatives—are being used in today’s market. The discussion will include how to model and measure interest rate risk, how to quantify hedge effectiveness, and how to improve hedging operations.

Description: Presentation from the Actuarial Research Conference describing risk management at a leading Canadian Bank.

Description: The speaker will discuss the training of neural networks to compute future Greeks of liabilities (or options) without the use of nested stochastics.