Description: This paper explores how health care complexity challenges us to expand our repertoire of actuarial methods—and even recast our trend driver paradigm—in order to do our jobs better and maintain our credibility.

Description: This article describes the history and in some respects, the future of Big Data, and the tools we can use to handle it for PM and for machine learning. One such tool is Vowpal Wabbit, which sounds like something from a Bugs Bunny and Elmer Fudd cartoon (“Dwat that wabbit”), but it really is a popular approach to process a dataset of any size, as there is no need to load all the data into memory. Big data is forcing us to enhance many of our tools. So is the increased actuarial usage of stochastic-in-stochastic analyses (nested stochastic processes), which can result in unacceptably long program run times. Many of our popular computer languages are not inherently well suited for parallel computations.

Description: Contrary to what you might infer from the article title, the author provides counterpoint from some data science skeptics and suggests Big Data sometimes leads to sloppy analysis.

Description: Actuaries can empower their understanding of policyholder behavior with third party data. Modeling policyholder behavior should start from developing knowledge of who they are, instead of actuaries assuming what a rational behavior should be.

Description: This is an article that discusses Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work and its significance for actuaries.

Description: Read the August 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics and Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section. Newsletter provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: The Future of Insurance is described, as seen by some heads of start-up FinTech companies.

Description: Read the December 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics and Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section. Newsletter provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: Big data, predictive analytics, machine learning and AI will likely transform the insurance market and the actuarial profession. The actuarial profession is seeing changes many markets, including health and property and casualty. This article describes these trends and provides an introduction into what companies and the Society of Actuaries (SOA) are doing to adapt and capitalize on these trends.

Description: Reflection on three years on the PAF section council and where we're headed next.