Description: In this article the author concludes that “terrorism may foster a sense of conservatism that we may now need in the marketplace. Now that policy may have to be changed. In the process, risk will become better understood, common sense can replace, to some extent, the irrational behavior or excessive risk taking of the past and we will all appreciate our financial situation much more, and won’t expose ourselves to unrealistic expectations as much Hopefully the actuarial profession can respond to the challenge, since we are the best qualified to quantify such risks in the marketplace.”

Description: This article discusses index separate accounts and their use by insurance companies for group pension clients, including product design and regulatory developments.

Description: Describes how the mantra of 'tax cuts will pay for themselves" along with the political unwillingness to cut spending (extant since the 1980s), has led to this increasing debt problem in the U.S., reaching $17 trillion at time of writing. Other countries are behaving in a similar fashion, and it can be only a matter of time before the globe may reach another crisis, this time based on excessive government debt coupled with fewer interested investors.

Description: Read the February 2017 issue of Risks and Rewards published by the Investment Section.

Description: The author discusses the review of a recent 2001 Wall Street Journal’s semiannual survey of economists’ forecasts, starting by asking if there is a simple way to summarize the results and to extract a consensus forecast, and from this extraction, determine when an individual forecast is significantly different from that of the consensus.This article is reprinted with permission. It last ran in the Jan. 10, 2001 issue of The La Jolla Economics newsletter.

Description: This article discusses capital market cycles, specifically considering whether or not 2008 was a good time to buy. It concludes that “stocks have likely only recently entered the buying opportunity range on an aggregate basis. However, from a psychological and risk management perspective, we should strongly consider that stock prices will revert beyond the mean for many years, perhaps even decades, before they get better.”

Description: In this Chairman’s corner column, Tom Anichini suggests several sources for finding investment related continuing education content. In addition to archived SOA presentations and recordings, other potential sources include pertinent academic and practitioner periodicals, blogs, podcasts, conference and seminar websites, and networks of academic publications and working papers.

Description: Describes outlook for inflation, generally higher in the US and lower in Japan/Europe. Enumerates macroeconomic drivers of inflation, and comments on the pace of inflation-linked debt issuance globally.

Description: This articles explores the notion of whether the old rules and paradigms of investment strategy and caution may no longer be applicable in today’s financial environment, because things were “different this time.”

Description: The author notes that “insurance companies have been in the business of risk management for hundreds of years. The latest trend towards risk management in banks is both new to insurance companies and very old hat—new because it applies new techniques at least new to the last half century and old hat because many risk management techniques are so old hat to insurance companies that they are almost unconsciously performing them.”