Description: This article discusses Jed Frees’ book in progress, “Regression Modeling with Actuarial and Financial Applications” which offers a synthesized introduction to regression and time series.

Description: A solicitation for letters to the editor of Expanding Horizons.

Description: T3: TAXING TIMES TIDBITS

Description: All things considered, caution needs to be applied to the use of so-called “standard” mortality tables. Sharpening up these blunt estimates by using individual assumptions reveals material differences in the structure of longevity, both between plans and within plans.

Description: The winner of the “most unique use of technology” prize of the 14th Speculative (and Inspiring) Fiction Contest.

Description: This article describes Medicare Supplement and short-term care products in more detail, and we compare their risk profiles. We explore the concept that these two products—when offered together—may provide a complementary hedge of certain policyholder behavior risks.

Description: In this article, a numerical comparison of two commonly used FIA valuation methodologies is conducted to help insurers decide on the best methodology to use under GAAP LDTI and VM-22. We compared two modeling approaches to project the future index credits with the annual point-to-point crediting formula: Tthe stochastic equity crediting model and the deterministic option budget crediting model. The analysis is then extended to different levels of option budgets and the monthly average crediting formula. The advantages and disadvantages of the two equity return projecting approaches are also highlighted and will be discussed later in the report.

Description: While the major market crash subsequent to the widespread contagion of the COVID-19 virus was readily predictable, the rapid recovery and ongoing growth subsequent to it was not. Market dynamics around the recovery resist characterization by most traditional analytical approaches. In examining the circumstances around the emergence of a large retail class of investors, one sees that ingrained human tendencies, particularly optimism bias, have fueled much investor behavior responsible for the recovery. Understanding this makes it possible to predict potential future crashes and develop behavioral interventions for subsequent market recoveries.

Description: The article discusses the continued popularity of indexed UL insurance and possible reasons why a company's actual indexed UL earnings may be below their original pricing expectations for the product. The article discusses several key items that may be the source of that underperformance (e.g., hedge ineffectiveness, policyholder behavior) and the need to monitor earnings and perform analyses to better understand those potential sources.