Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: The SOA’s Committee on Post Retirement Needs and Risks is issuing this request for proposals to study how individuals make retirement decisions. The Committee seeks to better understand retirement decision-making, what and when steps are completed, how finances and other factors are considered and how successful retirees are in their retirement years.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: The study demonstrates that both the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) methodologies have the ability to produce accurate four-quarter forecasts.

Description: This is a report examining the decision process to retire and views on managing assets after retirement. The study was designed specifically to examine those who were not forced to retire due to ill health or disability.

Description: This study aims to answer the question of how much of an episode’s cost and use of specific services can be attributed to the patient’s own health status, as opposed to being driven by other factors such as the care setting, patient preference, and provider practice patterns. In other words, do episode costs vary so widely because of patient characteristics, including health status, or are they related to other, nonclinical factors?

Description: This paper explores areas where fuzzy logic models may be applied to improve risk assessment and risk decision-making. It discusses the methodology, framework and process of using fuzzy logic systems for risk management. With the help of practical examples, it is hoped that it will encourage wise application of fuzzy logic models to risk modeling.

Description: Summary of the "Measures of Retirement Benefit Adequacy: Which, Why, for Whom, and How Much?" report.

Description: Recognizing the importance of fortifying risk adjustment programs against selection based on nontraditional variables, the Society of Actuaries’ Health Section sponsored an in-depth study into the relationship of nontraditional variables with health costs. This report presents the results of this study.

Description: This PBA Implementation Guide provides verbal summaries and visual flow chart overviews of various VM-20 and PBA components and requirements, six Case Study Road Maps, and action items to bridge the gaps and implement PBA. During the Guide’s development these templates and exercises were vetted with more than 15 participants selected from a diverse group of companies