Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: This is the Understanding Multimorbidites abstract authored by Sam Gutterman for Session 6B of the January 13-15, 2020 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

Description: Abstract of paper that addresses the issue of the manner in which financial resources are measured within government budgets, how this measurement of resources might affect public budget decisions, and how the interaction of the budget with the actuarial model can lead public budge managers to engage in financially damaging transactions such as pension obligation bonds.

Description: This monograph was presented at the 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, held March 14-16 in Chicago. The author, writing from a property-liability insurance perspective, notes that capital allocation is a theoretical exercise because all of a firm’s capital could be depleted to cover a significant loss arising from any one segment. However, firms do need to allocate capital for pricing, risk management and performance evaluation. In this paper, the cost of capital in financial markets is incorporated into the Ruhm-Mango-Kreps algorithm to yield one allocation that reflects the true cost of capital an insurer would face. Abstract only.

Description: Abstract: This paper provides background on the characteristics of the upper-truncated Pareto distribution and suggests some diagnostics, based on order statistics, to assist in selecting the upper truncation point, which affects the tail of the distribution in a risk model.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that presents two methods for calculating the exact ruin probability on an infinite time horizon in a model containing dependence between the interclaim time and the subsequent claim amount.

Description: This abstract describes a presentation that introduces the concepts and methods of trend analysis and a developed an Excel Software package for trend analysis.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that studies a risk measure derived from ruin theory defined as the smallest initial capital needed to cope in expectation with the first occurrence of a ruin event.

Description: The abstract for paper Mortality Improvement Select Birth Cohorts and Their Effect on Pricing Survivor Bonds.

Description: The abstract for paper Removing the Disincentives for Long Careers in Social Security.