Description: This paper aims to help financial and insurance practitioners better recognize, assess, and respond to large scale, large impact, rare events (LSLIRE’s) which are occurrences currently often wrongly labeled as being unpredictable black swans. A black swan, as Nassim Taleb defines it in his popular book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House & Penguin (2007-2010 2nd. Ed.) is 1) an outlier event, which 2) carries extreme impact, and 3) “makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact.” Elsewhere, Taleb says it is unpredictable, which is why people concoct explanations. Other people use the term in many and various ways, to enfold events missed by most people because they are rare, missed by computer models and/or experts, and to include events they simply seem personally to have misunderstood. The paper also discusses building better ways to assess such events’ background characteristics, emergence dynamics, logics, and other foreseeable attributes. A secondary focus is educating practitioners to better respond - whether to limit damage or to take advantage of - the opportunities that arise from what others are likely to miss or misjudge during and after the emergence of LSLIRE (AKA black swan) events.

Description: This year’s Survey, its sixth year, further reflects the impact of health care reform and the resulting prevalence of unlimited lifetime maximums on stop loss coverage. Of surveyed plans, 88% report such coverage –a steep increase from 13% in 2010. About half pair an unlimited lifetime with an interim annual maximum of $5 million or less. Premiums continue to rise (to no surprise)and are 60% to 70% higher than levels reported in our initial Survey in 2007. The primary focus of the Survey, current premium rates, is shown in the following graphs and tables.

Description: The chairperson discusses the health of the long term care industry in four key areas: investment, legitimacy, execution, and promotion.

Description: A discussion of the hidden costs of bringing innovative products to market, including the costs of expertise gaps and opportunity costs

Description: Highlights from international events of interest to actuaries.

Description: The results of new research on the current state and future opportunity of the retirement market in China.

Description: Metadata for entire issue

Description: This paper discusses the Total Career Benchmark Model, consistent with Retirement 20/20 principles, focuses on reconstructing and maintaining a consistent and reasonable sharing of risks and rewards amongst the four stakeholders: Individuals, Society, Employers and the Markets. Modern technology provides the necessary tools. A series of benchmarks are used for tax limits, target pensions, accrual to date etc. The self adjusting, consistent benchmarks under the TCB Model, means that all stakeholders speak the same language. Individuals and Employers can easily compare what they have to what they need – and more importantly can see how to accrue what is needed. An individual’s ability to tax shelter income over a career is not dependent on the design of any employer pension plan. All funds allocated to an individual remain the individual’s and are not used to subsidize another person – except for the inherent risk sharing of an annuity – by hidden transfers of value.

Description: Fourth installment in an ongoing series of articles adapted from Michael Carroll's "Awake at Work", applying Buddhist principles to the challenges faced by actuaries. This installment examines the often chaotic work circumstances faced by actuaries and encourages the reader to see such situations as opportunities for personal and professional growth.