Description: The article explores a closed-form forecasting method that combines Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), weighted linear regression, and ridge regression (L2 regularization). The approach addresses two key challenges in time-series forecasting: adapting to nonstationarity and mitigating overfitting due to multicollinearity. EWMA assigns more weight to recent observations, while ridge regression penalizes large coefficients to stabilize estimates. A cross-validation strategy across rolling time windows selects optimal hyperparameters: the EWMA decay factor (α) and the ridge penalty (λ). The method is tested using repeated regressions of stock returns, showing that most hyperparameter combinations outperform ordinary least squares (OLS) under the (λ=1, α=0) setting.

Description: The introduction and effective application of US GAAP LDTI have increased the scrutiny of those reviewing the updated financial results. That is because LDTI has resulted in significant changes in actuarial reserving and deferred acquisition cost (DAC) models for long-duration contracts, including significant changes to data, assumptions and required disclosures. In light of the changes, greater reliance has been put on companies’ model risk management (MRM) teams and model validations to assess the conceptual soundness and accuracy of their companies’ actuarial models and to assess that the underlying data and process utilized are suitable and appropriate. This article covers a brief background on model validation, walk through a sample LDTI-focused model validation framework/test plan, then provide insights on common LDTI-related validation observations based on the authors' prior validation experience.

Description: 2023 Questionnaire for Daniel S. Pribe

Description: Jon D. Sutcliffe obituary.

Description: Population Aging, Implications for Asset Values, and Impact for Pension Plans: An International Study

Description: This research report examines the ban of the use of genetic testing information in life insurance mortality.

Description: Julie A. Curtis is an endorsed candidate for elected Board Member for SOA's 2017 elections. Read her candidate questionnaire.

Description: Actuaries are risk averse by nature. In order to keep up with the transformative nature of today's healthcare environment SOA Fellow Ian Duncan encourages actuaries to become entrepreneurs and hands-on business leaders.

Description: The information assembled here has been collected by the SOA ambassadors, and is meant to provide you with a window into the condition and practice of insurance in the host country.

Description: 2023 Election Message for Sherry Chan