Description: Inflation and the possibility of recession are major factors affecting health care cost increases over the next five years. Insurance and medical organization will continue to evolve but are unlikely to create major shifts in the short run. However, over the long run structural changes in providers and payment mechanisms will determine future trends – raising or lowering the health share of GDP depending upon public choices and private decisions.

Description: This paper helps the audience understand the actuary’s role in estimating the financial impact of primary care programs. In addition, the paper can be used by actuaries to think about key issues when estimating the financial impact of their employers’ and clients’ own primary care programs.

Description: This report summarizes thoughts and questions about the impact of COVID-19 on working in retirement, phased retirement and how the definition and timing of retirement may change. It provides a synthesis of the expert input mentioned above and offers background on related research results. It also describes other issues for further consideration. T

Description: How does where you live impact your health? The following research considers this question through the lens of social determinants of health (SDOH), which are factors relating to where you live or work that may impact your health. In the United States, there are geographical differences in SDOH which contribute to wide disparities in health status and outcomes. In particular, individuals who are negatively affected by SDOH may have an increased burden of disease, leading to a relatively high total cost of care and worse quality of life.

Description: A divisive confrontation over health care pricing is almost inevitable over the next few years. What will ultimately happen is a political decision, not an actuarial one—but it will have major consequences for the trend in health care costs and the divergence between public and private insurance premiums.

Description: This report is targeted to actuaries that are interested in identifying the adverse human health outcomes resulting from anthropogenic climate change. This is accomplished by providing a detailed framework to evaluate the impact of extreme heat on human health and identify the role that anthropogenic climate change has on extreme heat events. Although this document is designed around extreme heat, the concepts can be expanded to other climate-related events. As the primary focus of actuarial research is to promote human health and minimize the preventable economic burden, this document also provides recommendations to mitigate against excess heat related illness (HRI) due to extreme heat.

Description: The document provides information on the ACA@15 research project, focusing on the extent that the Affordable Care Act legislation was able to meet its stated goals of reducing the uninsured rate, increasing coverage options, and providing affordable health insurance. It includes research findings, objectives, and key takeaways.

Description: This report is a comprehensive survey of existing literature on mortality and race and ethnicity in the United States, examining disparities in mortality rates among different racial and ethnic groups. It explores factors influencing mortality differentials, including socioeconomic status, health care access, and other relevant aspects.

Description: Pharmacy prices are top of mind for many consumers, policymakers, and payers. While there have been many efforts to reduce pharmacy costs over the years, many believe these efforts only helped us cope with the symptoms of the problem without providing a comprehensive cure for the underlying causes of this problem. The Society of Actuaries Health Section sponsored this Pharmacy Partnership Forum to gather multi-disciplinary experts in the pharmacy ecosystem. This report shares the insights and learnings that emerged from this group of health economics outcomes researchers, clinical pharmacists, medical doctors, health actuaries, benefits consultants and brokers, and their collective thoughts on advancing this exploration for society’s benefit.

Description: Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) affects many lives and has a large impact on health systems around the world. To better understand and predict costs for insurance plan members with CKD in the United States, we built a new model of their individual costs. Our model is the first to explicitly model both the CKD stage transition process and the distribution of costs given those stages.