Description: The SOA Research Institute has been publishing its annual Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends for the past decade. The Health Care Cost Trends Strategic Research Committee is looking for a researcher to build on the legacy of the Getzen model and provide annual updates to the SOA’s long-term health care trend projections.

Description: The American Academy of Actuaries Health Solvency Subcommittee and the NAIC Health Risk-Based Capital (E) Working Group are in the process of analyzing and reviewing the H2-Underwriting Risk component and the managed care credit calculation in the health risk-based capital (HRBC) formula. Come learn what changes are ahead! While RBC is designed for solvency issues, also come hear about other ways health insurers manage their capital and surplus levels. Are others doing something you should try?

Description: Model design is an important part of being an actuary, and the SOA highlights the importance of the actuarial control cycle of model design, evaluation and monitoring. What tools are at our disposal for these steps? When should we be concerned or excited about model performance? Can we, and should we, use machine learning tools to assist with model improvement or development?

Description: In this session, we will delve into the application of survey data analytics to extract valuable insights from public survey datasets. The discussion will start with the basics of survey design, sampling practices, and estimation of key statistics. Three case studies will be presented: one in the realm of population health and another in medical economics, both demonstrating the use of either SAS or R to perform the survey analytics.

Description: The introduction of new gene and cell treatments is not without scrutiny. Although these treatments are often curative, they come with a significant price tag. Health plan actuaries find themselves wondering if the intended outcome supports the cost and whether the potential medical cost savings will offset the high drug cost. The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) reviews results from clinical trials to produce a report evaluating the cost-effectiveness of new therapies. Depending on the results, the ICER report can be used by pharmaceutical companies to justify the high cost or by the health plan to do the opposite. Go beyond the ICER report and discuss an alternative method for valuing new drugs using nonmedical revenue streams, such as disability and nutrition benefits, and return-on-investment modeling. By attending this session, you will have a better understanding of the nonmedical revenue streams, such as disability and nutrition assistance benefits, that may offset the cost of a drug and how those revenue streams can be incorporated into return-on-investment modeling.

Description: Gather with members and non-members in the China actuarial community to discuss recent topics and related issues in areas such as macroeconomic sharing, pension, investment, product strategy, and more.

Description: Introducing Random Effects into Risk Score Models

Description: "Can you answer the question 'what are the chances we will lose more than $1 million next year?' without saying 'it depends'? If you miss a projection, can you quantify the chances that the miss was due to random variation vs. an incorrect projection? ten in as presenters demonstrate how to answer these questions and others using total risk analysis. Total risk analysis includes quantifying both the random variation risk and the projection risk associated with actuarial functions like pricing and reserving. After attending this session, you will be able to describe total risk analysis, apply total risk analysis to many actuarial functions."

Description: In this presentation, actuaries and data scientists from Cleveland Clinic and Milliman discuss the development of a sepsis prediction model using machine learning. Presented with a unique challenge of handling massive amounts of data for near real-time risk scoring, the team took their model development to the cloud and delivered a product in less than a week through a unique virtual engagement.