Description: By disinformation we mean the inclusion of data that should not be considered in a study. In this paper we discuss a case in which the presence of disinformation was clear, but it was not possible to determine with certainly which records were extraneous.

Description: The Lee and Carter LC method is getting widely adopted for long-run forecasts of age specific mortality rates. That popularity is first due to the model simplicity. Moreover, the LC model has given successful results for various countries e.g. U.S., Chile, G7 countries. However, some difficulties arose when using population data from certain countries such as UK and Australia. In the present paper, the LC model is applied to data from four Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The Singular Value Decomposition SVD, the Weighted Least Square WLS and the Maximum Likelihood estimate MLE are used. These approaches give satisfactory results. The appropriate fitting period needs, however, to be well chosen. The properties of the model's parameters are studied using a bootstrap simulation.

Description: This article examines how parameter uncertainty leads to uncertainty in Value at Risk VaR estimates. Lacking a closed form solution, we use a first order approximation of VaR to map parameter changes into changes in the VaR value. When the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates is normal, this implies a normal approximation of the confidence interval about VaR. We describe this approximation in detail and explore some extensions to risk factor modeling.

Description: There is nothing like a serious financial crisis to see if your risk management process works or not. The depth and breadth of the financial crisis in 2008 identified the strengths and more importantly exposed the weaknesses of the risk management process at Lincoln Financial. Enterprise Risk Management is tasked with understanding all the key risks inside a company and preparing the company to respond to those weaknesses. Lincoln Financial was exposed to multiple stress points as a result of the financial crisis and found themselves with insufficient resources to weather the storm. Ultimately the risk management process at Lincoln Financial was not fully capable of dealing with the depth and scope of the financial stress. Without access to government support it can be argued that Lincoln would not have survived the most profound financial crisis of the modern era. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Economic capital models are getting increasingly complex. An alternate copula free approach is presented which uses accounting data and an implicit correlation model to simplify economic capital calculations. Model simplification leads to robust and stable models. A banking case study is used to showcase how the model can be deployed using publicly available accounting data, capital adequacy, leverage ratios and shortfall tools.

Description: Disease management DM is increasingly encountered in health plans and employer groups as a health care intervention targeted to individuals with chronic diseases chronics. The untested assumption is that without DM, the chronic and non-chronic trends are identical. From Financing Chronic Care Monograph, M-HB05-1.

Description: This paper discusses the level of reserve funds that a pension plan should maintain to protect itself from a downturn in the financial markets. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: This paper discusses some of the models used to quantify risk, note some areas where improvements in standard methods are needed, and in some cases suggest alternative approaches for risks in Property and Casualty Insurance and Life Insurance.

Description: Risk management theory prescribes a few legitimate reasons for management to hedge corporate revenues and reduce income volatility. In this paper we will use the oil tanker industry to illustrate some of these strategic considerations and how management can account for them in their decisions regarding whether and how much to hedge. Further work is needed to incorporate these considerations into a broader theoretical framework. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Regularization, by means of trading restrictions, is an effective way to obtain sparse replicating portfolios. By including only the most relevant replicating instruments, the resulting portfolio is more efficient computationally, easier to interpret, and better able to approximate the liability on an out-of-sample basis. The instruments selected depend largely on their respective trading costs. This paper evaluates a number of alternative methods for specifying trading costs. We find that trading costs based on simple statistics of the instrument and liability cash flows are an effective choice in practice. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.