Description: The article introduces the concept of overfitting in predictive modeling and illustrates how it hinders our ability to predict new data well.

Description: This article discusses techniques used to create risk scores to help determine appropriate primary care panel sizes for a provider organization.

Description: The editor of the newsletter provides a running list of articles included in the issue highlighting such topics as the applicability genetic algorithms, the power of group dynamics, judgmental forecasting, improvement in mortality and complexity science.

Description: Provides details of the 2nd forecasting competition for the best model that predicts the Civilian Unemployment Rate 'UNRATE', measured on a monthly basis, from March-end 2012 through September-end 2012.

Description: Bayesian networks are one of many models that are useful for predictive modeling. This article introduces the concept of Bayesian network and shows how time-series data can be modeled for a Bayesian network.

Description: Here we break down deep learning into its various conceptual sets so as to have a better intuitive understanding of deep learning.

Description: In this article, we are going to discuss the AR model by making connections to time-dependent ordinary differential equations.

Description: Summary of what the section has accomplished over the past year.

Description: Looks at free and inexpensive resources for the novice in predictive analytics, covering the data analysis theory as well as the most commonly used languages/software used in the field.

Description: Why Actuaries Should Welcome Automation