Description: Editorial that explores how underlying issues of the economic bubble were actuarial in nature.

Description: This SOA e-course shows you how to use financial modeling to assess or mitigate risk. It covers derivatives pricing, range of outcomes and more.

Description: In this session, senior pension and insurance investment professionals will share their thoughts on current investment topics. Attendees will hear about leading edge investment ideas and practices from industry leaders.

Description: discussion of an insurance product which ensures the payment of an anticipated tax refund, in order to allow the taxpayer to borrow against that refund to meet liquidity needs.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: This paper examines some new Bayesian models for loss reserving inspired by a consideration of some of the methods and techniques appearing in the traditional chain ladder literature. This includes a possibly order restricted hierarchical Bayesian model for the year over year development factors. The issues of reserve variability and ranges of reasonable reserve estimates are considered. A new Bornhuetter-Ferguson styled Bayesian method of estimate revision is also discussed. These Bayesian models can be implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo MCMC methods in a variety of programming languages, and can serve as starting points for more advanced models. This paper describes their implementation in WinBUGS a specialized software program for MCMC simulations. Illustrative WinBUGS code is included.

Description: Since insurance contract liabilities are uncertain in amount, an estimate is required. And under most accounting frameworks, the estimate of an uncertain amount should contain some sort of margin for uncertainty. This paper provides a mathematical connection between that margin and the market price of risk as measured by the cost of capital. The connection makes use of the theory of utility and an exponential utility curve.

Description: R. Evan Inglis, the new chairperson of the SOA/AAA Joint Pension Finance Task Force, shares with us his view of the important pension finance issues facing actuaries and the task force’s vision of how pension finance can strengthen the actuarial profession.

Description: The impact of bond default risk on retirement benefit obligations describes how the probability default on a bond is similar to the probability of death for an annuitant. Bonds are used to cash flow match retirement obligations cash flows to funding from bond. Just as the probability of non-payment happens on the liability side, we can do the same with selected bonds. The end result may be an adjustment to the discount rates used.

Description: Many retirement actuaries have experience developing, implementing, and monitoring Liability Driven Investing (LDI) strategies for plan sponsors. These strategies typically involve modifying a plan’s investment strategy to remove a significant portion of the investment and interest rate risk now or at some point in the future when specific triggers are met. The tactics often involve the use of fixed income assets to cash flow and/or duration match the liabilities. In the spirit of helping actuaries expand their roles in an evolving defined contribution world, this article explores the application of LDI and derisking strategies within defined contribution and individual retirement accounts. The economic theory behind this approach is called the lifecycle hypothesis, or lifecycle finance. The benefits of the lifecycle finance method are that it provides a safe approach to save for retirement and a secure source of floor income during retirement. Similar to pension plans, each individual has his or her own idiosyncratic needs, wants, and risks that should be considered. Actuaries are uniquely situated to help defined contribution plan sponsors, individuals, and even themselves implement the lifecycle finance approach by developing and distributing tools and methods that focus on income (rather than wealth), LDI strategies, and personalization.