Description: This publication is intended to serve as an in-depth primer on economic scenario generators. The first half of the publication provides more general information on the nature of economic scenario generators—what they are, how they evolved, how they address regulatory and business needs in the insurance and pension industries. It also addresses essential features of a good economic scenario generator, and provides some detailed guidance on important aspects of financial market model specification, model calibration and model validation considerations to assure that the ESG will produce simulation results that are relevant, sufficiently robust, and realistically reflect market dynamics. The second half of the publication provides technical discussion of some of the essential financial markets aspects of a comprehensive ESG. Description of arbitrage-free considerations, the role of risk-neutral scenarios, and default-free interest rate models are explored with some of the underlying mathematics necessary to understand these considerations. Final chapters provide some important considerations relating to corporate bond models and equity index models, and how these considerations may extend to international and global interactions.

Description: Results of an industry survey on life insurance companies' efforts to implement the recently adopted Life Risk-Based Capital Phase II Instructions, which include new requirements for variable annuity contracts. Adopted by the NAIC on October 14, 2005, the new requirements are effective for year-end 2005. Also discusses a summary of the requirements set forth in the instructions.

Description: View the complete issue for the August 2014 Reinsurance News newsletter.

Description: This article describes some of the drawbacks to the assessment of longevity risk adopted by most practitioners within the UK together with an initiative that provides a platform for an alternative approach that is both (a) more forward-looking in nature and (b) can complement current practices.

Description: The article discusses under which conditions it is appropriate to use the true probability distribution or the risk-neutral probability distribution for interest rate scenario generation. It addresses which should be used for valuation purposes and strategy development.

Description: The article warns against treating the results of a stochastic model with more deference than other actuarial analysis, and describes some hidden risks involved with choice of model and calibration.

Description: This article is the first installment of a three-part series that aims to provide an overview of ESGs and will focus on the general motivation for stochastic modeling, its advantages and its limitations. Future articles will further break down the key factors of ESGs and the application of these factors to better understand the Academy Interest Rate Generator (AIRG).

Description: This article discusses an upcoming SOA/CAS sponsored project regarding the Modeling of Economic Series Coordinated with Interest Rate Scenarios.

Description: Describes using the new multi-risk scenario generator to create sensitivity tests at moderately adverse probability levels, resulting in margins to use for PBR.

Description: An observation is made regarding the impact interest rate scenarios have on VM-20 stochastic reserves.