Description: A study on stochastic simulation literature as it applies to a health actuary.

Description: Modeling experience sharing by David Yu who leads the retirement product and asset model development team within Prudential Financial

Description: The April 2016 Issue of The Modeling Platform

Description: A summary of Modeling Section-sponsored sessions at the 2016 Life/Annuity Symposium, covering model risk management, model governance, and model efficiency.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This study investigates whether simulation-based models can be used to predict liquidity risk for banks, which must comply with Basel III by January 2015. The paper looks at the process of developing a measurement framework using Black-Scholes and Merton’s asset-based models to measure liquidity risk.

Description: Discusses methods to efficiently run stochastic models in light of AG 43.

Description: The Risk Management Task Force polled the Risks & Rewards readers and asked the following questions related to Monte Carlo models: 1 How many scenarios do you run? 2 How did you determine the number? and 3 What confidence interval does your result have? The results are summarized in this article.

Description: As stochastic modeling has evolved, it has divided down two paths—real-world and risk-neutral. This article discusses this division and shows how these paths may be re-united through the use of deflators.

Description: Feature article discussing numerical short cuts, rules of thumb, estimators, modeling tips, etc. The featured problem is fitting the intermediate points for a real-world stochastic model of interest rates.