Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This study investigates whether simulation-based models can be used to predict liquidity risk for banks, which must comply with Basel III by January 2015. The paper looks at the process of developing a measurement framework using Black-Scholes and Merton’s asset-based models to measure liquidity risk.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This paper first explores the current state and contributing causes of obesity. It then explores the mortality and health care costs of obesity. It ends with a discussion of its management.

Description: Presented at the Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This paper looks at issues with regard to long life and managing risk by individuals. It focuses on how structuring of payouts interacts with issues related to long life, and also discusses cash benefits and health-related benefits.

Description: This paper demonstrates the use of Quantile Regression in the development and understanding of conditional value at risk (VaR) models for enterprise risk management.

Description: Increasing uncertainties and volatility in financial as well as real goods markets increasingly reveal that controlling systems based on deterministic and pseudo-exact values are insufficiently eligible to manage the business activities. This raises the question how management systems can be modified to generate the adequate management impulses in volatile periods. Risk management deals from identifying, evaluating and aggregating chances and risks, which again determine the potential fluctuation range of relevant performance indicators. Everyday corporate life shows that risk management is considered important; but the corresponding processes to identify, evaluate and report chances and risks are seldom part of established decision criteria. This “paradox” lets assume that risks are managed in various differing and unsystematic ways. The combination of traditional controlling methods and risk management is not primarily a methodological challenge. The behavior of the whole organization, practiced over a long-year period, has to be transferred into a new corporate culture of transparent dealing with chances and risks. This paper describes the necessary change management process, which has to come along with necessary methodological modifications.

Description: This paper examines the argument whether enterprise risk management (ERM) adds value to the entire firm. Using the A.M. Best property/casualty insurance business database from 2000 to 2009 for 794 US insurance companies we found evidence to support this argument.

Description: Abstract: The paper applies a back‐testing validation methodology of economic scenario generating models and introduces a new D‐statistic to evaluate the robustness of the underlying model during a specified validation period. The statistic presented here can be used to identify the optimal model by repeating calibrations with changing initial parameters. It can compare between calibration methods, be used to rank between models, and provide a single concise reporting metric for ongoing model monitoring.

Description: Abstract: Project portfolio risk management and risk analysis form one of the critical components of enterprise risk management. Organizations measure and analyze risks associated with projects, project portfolios, and programs. The important step of the process is quantitative risk analysis of project schedules using event chain methodology (ECM). ECM is a stochastic modeling technique for schedule risk analysis. All risks, including schedule and nonschedule-related risks, are assigned to a particular project and within this project to the particular activity or resource. Further, ECM allows one to model the relationship between project risks by defining risks that cause or trigger other risks. All risks and relationships between them will be presented on the project or portfolio Gantt charts using event chain diagrams. After risks are assigned to project and portfolio schedules, Monte Carlo simulation of the project schedule is performed. ECM simplifies complex risk analysis process.

Description: The paper takes a critical stand on best ERM practices as proposed by the Cultural Theory of Risk and especially by the work of Ingram, Underwood and Thompson (IUT). The paper claims that both mainstream-type ERM practices ("rigid ERM") and IUT's alternative ("fluid ERM") fail in critical parts to account how risk managers, in everyday normal tasks, develop their ERM practices in a context-dependent way. Context-dependent ERM takes into account the whole context, that is both the recognition that risk environment changes and the need for the firm to develop a stable (yet open to meaningful changes) sociotechnical identity with a consistent risk attitude and appetite.

Description: Abstract for Optimal Retirement Tontines for the 21st Century: with Reference to Mortality Derivatives in 1693